Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9132bc2cd5176c455d14306c8c19f02334d80f66998e279a9ebe283db78bb567

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Oct 14, 2025, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $396,114
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $190,124

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $396,114 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	76,026$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$547.32	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	19,176$272 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.95	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	17,100$338 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$337.7	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd236…d292backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x807d…1e89backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x127e…aea2backed Yes	0c	8,140$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe995…e7d1backed Yes	1c	7,537$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…fb32backed Yes	2c	7,500$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe86c…10f3backed Yes	1c	7,399$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.7	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	18cpaid	+31.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	6,099$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.87	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	5c	6,000$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.88	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	9c	5,904$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.31	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked Yes	2c	5,274$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.15per pick	25cpaid	-83.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	5c	4,886$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.73	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	4,787$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.7	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	4c	4,551$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.05	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	5c	3,772$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.13	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	3,250$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.34	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	3,200$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.89	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes	11c	3,013$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.29	239	14.2%34 W · 205 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ffd…a637backed Yes	2c	2,561$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.45	340	17.1%58 W · 282 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b87…a20abacked Yes	2c	2,495$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	29	24.1%7 W · 22 L	-4.7wins	-0.16per pick	40cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	2,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06bc…2887backed Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	10cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	3c	1,804$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.34	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	1c	1,790$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x390e…86bbbacked Yes	1c	1,642$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	3c	1,550$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.5	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	20c	1,501$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	5c	1,500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked Yes	7c	1,455$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.42	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbf61…2ed5backed Yes	9c	1,455$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.16	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-59.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes	3c	1,284$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.68	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-68.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	9c	1,255$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.02	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd081…0cfabacked Yes	12c	1,241$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.36	281	13.5%38 W · 243 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	8c	1,107$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.85	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	8c	1,100$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb72c…653ebacked Yes	1c	1,083$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.25	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	23cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	5c	1,051$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.53	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e54…b580backed Yes	1c	1,032$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb194…1063backed Yes	3c	1,026$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	20cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	2c	1,017$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	417	18%75 W · 342 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4312…a388backed Yes	1c	1,017$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,011$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	9c	881.72$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdab4…5dbabacked Yes	11c	832.63$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.78	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	8c	785.12$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.32	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02b0…10ecbacked Yes	4c	752.36$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-51%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	746.6$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.67	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	5c	569.98$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.6	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	531.05$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.91	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac38…f21ebacked Yes	19c	528.96$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	-4.8wins	-0.11per pick	35cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3adf…d8b0backed Yes	4c	519.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbed…c997backed Yes	8c	500.06$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.31	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	+3.3wins	+0.10per pick	11cpaid	+78.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	7c	499.86$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.27	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8498…d219backed Yes	12c	473.9$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	42	4.8%2 W · 40 L	-3.4wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-75.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x215d…ba6dbacked Yes	11c	457.64$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cf8…bfd6backed Yes	10c	415.78$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-68.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	10c	414.27$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1633…190cbacked Yes	12c	399.52$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.85	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf70c…72c1backed Yes	11c	389.17$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.61	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9cf…7df7backed Yes	4c	377.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+48.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8662…61d0backed Yes	7c	360.26$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.28per pick	22cpaid	+37.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes	24c	357.58$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.75	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	11c	330.41$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.26	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacfe…b2fabacked Yes	9c	308.46$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.71	58	25.9%15 W · 43 L	+1.8wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x701c…4615backed Yes	8c	289$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.27	64	17.2%11 W · 53 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	5c	284.58$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a25…6d20backed Yes	16c	250.94$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdeb0…3b23backed Yes	9c	250$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f3…f3a5backed Yes	9c	233.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0f4e…e413backed Yes	17c	219$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.23	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bb1…f1e1backed Yes	14c	213.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7865…28a8backed Yes	12c	201.06$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.12	103	39.8%41 W · 62 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3068…cbf5backed Yes	15c	200.4$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+48.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35d1…4defbacked Yes	10c	200.13$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.58	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1b…8263backed Yes	13c	200.08$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.3	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+48.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c18…2fb9backed Yes	12c	200.05$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.4	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5801…1c21backed Yes	11c	200.03$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.4	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+1.2wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+236.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd25d…6088backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafce…5c9bbacked Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.2wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfed7…5490backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5609…33f4backed Yes	22c	200$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.96	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe51…434bbacked Yes	12c	199.98$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-17.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabf…bb11backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc368…0622backed Yes	13c	180.79$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	30cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	9c	174.38$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5fe…5962backed Yes	7c	157.14$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25f3…0a98backed Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	+5.9wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf1fb…a80fbacked Yes	10c	143$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8ff4…eb8ebacked Yes	14c	139.64$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	64	31.3%20 W · 44 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9db…2229backed Yes	11c	118.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	36cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b4e…0432backed Yes	11c	113$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.43	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x018c…448abacked Yes	11c	111.09$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	+16.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22fb…bbc3backed Yes	10c	100.8$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 25 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 7 to October 14, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event