TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9a25…6d20

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT2147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+13.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+491.1%+$196.46
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+185.7%+$74.29
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+132.6%+$39.77
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+64.2%+$77.07
Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+150%+$60
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$20
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$24
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 14, 2025, EDT+197.8%+$39.57
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$220Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$69.47
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy in 2024? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$16.5
Israel strikes Iranian oil in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2024, EDT+25%+$6
Israel military response against Iran by Friday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 12, 2024, EDT+29.9%+$20.7
Will Israel invade Lebanon before September?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$22
Iran military response by Sunday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 5, 2024, EDT+81.8%+$32.73
All 21 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT1266.7%8 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+12.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another critical Cloudflare incident by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$18.9
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 225,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$14.32
Another critical Cloudflare incident by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$20.67
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+85.2%+$34.07
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+101%+$20.2
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will no CEO be announced in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.4%+$20.57
Another critical Cloudflare incident by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+29.6%+$11.85
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+28.5%+$21.74
All 12 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-45.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Oct 14, 2025, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid+108.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-55%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-58.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Oct 17, 2025, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+141.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hyperliquid daily fees above $8M in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2025, EDT+69.5%+$16.4
Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST+214.2%+$42.85
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+38.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+69.5%+$27.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Oct 6, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Rihanna Baby: Boy or Girl?backed Girl · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 6, 2025, EDT+31.2%+$24.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Feb 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Kash Patel confirmed as Director of the FBI?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Sep 3, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2024, EDT-100%-$12.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.