TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Commodities · resolved market

Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,750,290
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,377,681

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,750,290 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 313 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Commodities
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x51fd…4272backed No14c84,471$12,135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,134.864235.7%15 W · 27 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick22cpaid-6.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x94e4…534abacked No4c39,240$1,483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,483.4128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-69.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73bb…9473backed Yes73c22,401$16,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,096.71666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+227.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfa39…977fbacked No0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20392.6%1 W · 38 L+0.1wins0.00per pick2cpaid-67.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d63…2cbfbacked No25c20,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,999.972536%9 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-40.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed No4c11,578$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0103…067bbacked No38c11,408$4,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,376.111513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-81%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa372…1b3ebacked No1c10,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x00ee…1128backed No0c7,235$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3950%0 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No4c7,223$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.451,0309.2%95 W · 935 L-25.0wins-0.02per pick12cpaid-55.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe965…6559backed Yes75c6,437$4,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,629.74333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3969…6e2cbacked No3c5,976$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.6890%0 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x730a…3e59backed Yes39c5,812$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,527.31450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+120.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes62c5,706$3,533 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.43738.2%6 W · 67 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick4cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4706…286ebacked No1c5,689$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1980%0 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda17…d901backed No0c5,425$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes61c5,154$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,003.9430238.1%115 W · 187 L+11.1wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-13%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b52…4db0backed Yes72c5,099$3,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,412.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3c0…477abacked No1c4,823$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No8c4,780$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.933023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.0wins+0.07per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71d3…0552backed Yes74c4,723$3,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,211.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2450…8108backed Yes65c4,654$3,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.33757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x547b…014cbacked Yes44c4,589$2,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.97616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-62.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e01…63bebacked Yes79c4,444$3,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$952.2915556.1%87 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x321f…9d9dbacked No1c4,046$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.4810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef67…2a33backed No1c4,000$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4430%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9dc…9026backed No36c4,000$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-42.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Yes73c3,631$2,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd8d4…494dbacked Yes69c3,499$2,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,086.59580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+34%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe758…c90ebacked Yes79c3,475$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$738.14250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-36.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e0…1483backed No5c3,390$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.440%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5651…66a6backed Yes70c3,179$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9491546.7%7 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-25.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No2c3,081$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.62908.9%8 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick9cpaid-46.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No0c3,075$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.942324.3%10 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick5cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdfc…288cbacked No40c3,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,200366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+25.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x64de…25a1backed No19c2,568$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.55520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-70.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a9c…97a4backed No1c2,558$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.02180%0 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc70…e510backed No1c2,500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No1c2,409$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3611615.5%18 W · 98 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+38.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x534b…b321backed No36c2,400$862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86250%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x82a0…33a1backed Yes73c2,354$1,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$638.97219.5%2 W · 19 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-83.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4047…7293backed Yes74c2,322$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.216651.5%34 W · 32 L+6.8wins+0.10per pick41cpaid+18.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x780a…c0c7backed No1c2,308$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+83.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x013d…3e88backed No53c2,270$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,196.93229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-59.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d37…f4a4backed Yes59c2,238$1,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.83475%3 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.44per pick31cpaid+140.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf296…9839backed Yes51c1,945$990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.93366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e3…b595backed No1c1,934$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0130%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0007…434ebacked Yes28c1,894$535 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,359.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.72per pick28cpaid+254.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eac…3600backed Yes54c1,874$1,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$856.42020%4 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick15cpaid-48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes17c1,809$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,507.83911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick7cpaid-33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x217b…bfcdbacked Yes78c1,662$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fda…01d5backed Yes62c1,645$1,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$626.32025%5 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-59.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8bc…de30backed Yes75c1,580$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6d…7c06backed Yes38c1,500$570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9301100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6136…5dcdbacked Yes68c1,477$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$476.851100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc78c…4edbbacked Yes15c1,471$227 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,244.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+549%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35ab…31b2backed No1c1,465$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5694…a31fbacked No1c1,451$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No1c1,428$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.041306.2%8 W · 122 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick7cpaid-63.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066a…550dbacked Yes61c1,406$857 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.068100%8 W · 0 L+2.8wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb51e…3361backed No1c1,364$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x75bb…fec1backed No1c1,249$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc6c…287cbacked No59c1,224$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.69520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-73.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb41b…b786backed No1c1,219$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x251b…2797backed No1c1,193$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dd9…240ebacked No36c1,186$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.7450%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf0…f098backed No1c1,115$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe85d…15eabacked Yes39c1,073$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$650.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+154.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5992…51e1backed No44c1,049$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.3870%0 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42df…b671backed No39c1,033$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…a2d5backed No5c999.99$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca8…da83backed No12c976.93$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.9140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695f…f585backed No66c911.52$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No52c900$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4664544.4%20 W · 25 L+5.8wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4a1c…5c7fbacked Yes78c848.44$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e7…fc15backed Yes33c821.92$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.12540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick21cpaid+71.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb608…ebdfbacked Yes59c800$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0970…5ae4backed No28c750$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf54…5345backed No2c739.52$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa10d…acc6backed Yes34c738.86$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.652100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+156.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27a4…d44cbacked Yes66c738.33$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76be…6718backed Yes75c675.69$507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f1c…4e67backed Yes64c660$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.22100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6274…7226backed Yes79c628.07$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcf…76e3backed No39c600$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae0…237cbacked Yes75c600$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1502100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd71e…7972backed Yes42c593.97$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.751100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+139.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e61…a88abacked Yes71c580.49$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+39.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e96…f109backed Yes64c579$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9e0a…5e93backed Yes63c576.06$363 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.1250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4f8…f705backed Yes61c552$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf327…0b68backed Yes73c550$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e49…7849backed Yes16c546.18$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.771414.3%2 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-31.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3421…5cafbacked Yes68c543.45$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No42c537.82$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9923846.6%111 W · 127 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+2.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ad1…cb3cbacked Yes45c531.27$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe928…4d05backed No7c526.99$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes61c505.36$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.3612011.7%14 W · 106 L+7.5wins+0.06per pick5cpaid+178.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd574…425dbacked Yes66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0894…cf93backed Yes60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2001127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.