Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x90e47edd9b0125997afc73881f43c195c777f99f28f0d82196a5fc561faae088
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $915,143
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $768,502
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $915,143 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6fd5…2a3fbacked Yes | 20c | 69,462$13,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,892.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2455…6ebebacked No | 80c | 69,462$55,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,892.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xded5…02efbacked Yes | 0c | 31,322$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 30,451$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,949$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e0…1483backed Yes | 1c | 26,773$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 15c | 23,616$3,596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,596.28 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 18,750$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 13,575$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x231c…7e0bbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4457…4959backed Yes | 0c | 8,333$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc483…8ac8backed Yes | 0c | 8,147$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf925…fd8dbacked Yes | 1c | 7,092$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe393…9811backed Yes | 1c | 7,076$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f5…6042backed Yes | 1c | 7,055$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7579…6568backed Yes | 2c | 7,030$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked Yes | 5c | 6,811$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.53 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 15c | 6,197$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.36 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65f8…df1abacked Yes | 1c | 5,955$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Yes | 1c | 5,493$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…9511backed Yes | 2c | 5,170$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b9…dd90backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4185…bd05backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…095cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d4…e810backed Yes | 1c | 4,395$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -52%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5f…c23ebacked Yes | 0c | 4,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 2cpaid | +1,397.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 3c | 3,815$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.72 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d1…d762backed Yes | 1c | 3,739$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 3,536$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5907…3b88backed Yes | 1c | 3,536$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94e4…534abacked Yes | 1c | 3,451$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…04b0backed Yes | 3c | 3,432$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 0c | 3,227$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…e3e7backed Yes | 2c | 2,974$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf916…9224backed Yes | 7c | 2,751$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…51e1backed Yes | 10c | 2,659$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.56 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 16c | 2,651$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.37 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50f4…5e6abacked Yes | 2c | 2,522$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.95 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd10a…d2dfbacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x878a…134dbacked Yes | 3c | 2,457$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…b671backed Yes | 5c | 2,013$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4785…cdfdbacked Yes | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,800$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6841…6e1fbacked Yes | 15c | 1,697$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a7…c4debacked Yes | 11c | 1,563$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8484…0d9abacked Yes | 2c | 1,504$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,467$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f5f…7ecebacked Yes | 1c | 1,207$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6736…058cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,002$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da1…97d1backed Yes | 1c | 982$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecc7…3d71backed Yes | 2c | 967$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…7849backed Yes | 18c | 960.05$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.9 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 1c | 928.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…637ebacked Yes | 22c | 700$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8ebebacked Yes | 5c | 670.77$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.28 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd9…240ebacked Yes | 5c | 619.89$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x322e…bae4backed Yes | 8c | 576.45$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.25per pick | 11cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 555.42$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed No | 74c | 504$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.83 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6445…4ec0backed Yes | 10c | 480.07$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed No | 73c | 396.5$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 19c | 317.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc2a…fd6dbacked Yes | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15dd…8b3fbacked Yes | 9c | 234.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd02…60e0backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6c…287cbacked Yes | 16c | 199.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -73.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfed5…7472backed Yes | 9c | 168.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b6b…994dbacked Yes | 18c | 161$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13ed…3990backed Yes | 16c | 159$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x498c…752bbacked Yes | 27c | 136.5$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 18c | 128.01$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…5744backed Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1d…c011backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd713…4662backed Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdff…d544backed Yes | 16c | 89.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…ed20backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.