Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12993004a50c8a25454afbc8ccea7a52f9e6f5ddfaa218feea52a4e95cd874bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,651,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $345,520
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,651,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 0c | 73,443$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.31 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 37,258$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.26 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90a0…7b52backed Yes | 0c | 34,229$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac77…3a23backed Yes | 0c | 34,229$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 33,359$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.74 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd36a…2eefbacked Yes | 0c | 33,226$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad2…8ee6backed Yes | 0c | 32,876$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…9482backed Yes | 0c | 32,387$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…0436backed Yes | 0c | 31,717$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…c74bbacked Yes | 0c | 31,120$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe114…5763backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 19,920$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa305…f031backed Yes | 0c | 18,160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed6…f8fabacked Yes | 0c | 17,115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…3686backed Yes | 0c | 17,115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…9882backed Yes | 0c | 17,115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa090…68c1backed Yes | 0c | 17,115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x027b…2746backed Yes | 0c | 17,115$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781a…adabbacked Yes | 0c | 16,000$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x283b…3a9bbacked Yes | 0c | 15,741$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161d…7794backed Yes | 0c | 15,606$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 14,350$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d97…d461backed Yes | 0c | 11,900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5de…aa6dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,500$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 0c | 8,957$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.45 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 8,800$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Yes | 0c | 7,287$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 2c | 5,579$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.8 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8ebebacked Yes | 1c | 5,220$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,843$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x968d…e3b6backed Yes | 1c | 2,874$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…51e1backed Yes | 5c | 2,698$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d09…dd55backed Yes | 1c | 2,200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1515…4320backed Yes | 6c | 2,138$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e18…06afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,907$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 4c | 1,129$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…4ba5backed Yes | 4c | 1,085$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 974.46$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.07 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 1c | 967.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…8a38backed Yes | 2c | 763.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed Yes | 6c | 685.56$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e96…9971backed Yes | 12c | 675.02$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 3c | 605.95$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 4c | 500$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…9074backed Yes | 3c | 490.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca8…da83backed Yes | 7c | 421.8$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…7849backed Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…daa8backed Yes | 12c | 244.68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab4…13b2backed Yes | 6c | 216.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 9c | 191.58$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?Yes won
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.