Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74932644b8a73ada7a07180157ae32a26a1269058ebac758fb8ac0ab2d863b76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,308,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $471,335
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,308,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 85,651$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.53 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xba50…9f97backed Yes | 0c | 37,559$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 24,888$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 5c | 20,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 1c | 18,285$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.22 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 0c | 17,794$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8d…5f27backed Yes | 0c | 15,982$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 1c | 10,296$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.71 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +4.6wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x00ee…1128backed Yes | 0c | 8,332$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x155f…0a00backed Yes | 1c | 7,050$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…15dabacked Yes | 2c | 5,159$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 0c | 5,125$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.02 | 130 | 6.2%8 W · 122 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc2…294abacked Yes | 1c | 5,055$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 4,627$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.94 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e3…b595backed Yes | 0c | 4,275$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…112cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,891$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 9c | 3,485$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49c…d5fdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,143$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 2c | 2,882$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.48 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 6c | 2,844$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.2 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes | 10c | 2,600$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0084…84c6backed Yes | 1c | 2,504$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…db5cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,349$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 2,307$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 90 | 8.9%8 W · 82 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,172$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fda…01d5backed Yes | 6c | 1,903$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.18 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -59.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31fc…20edbacked Yes | 1c | 1,801$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf586…b0c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,777$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…61d6backed Yes | 11c | 1,608$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.79 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f6f…01c0backed Yes | 1c | 1,588$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0878…8757backed Yes | 1c | 1,480$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2df…2f79backed Yes | 1c | 1,475$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1515…4320backed Yes | 10c | 1,401$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.51 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa57b…32ddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,395$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 8cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 2c | 1,375$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2358…2c64backed Yes | 1c | 1,322$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x086c…3879backed Yes | 1c | 1,198$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 9c | 1,176$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.89 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 2c | 950$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd50…c17bbacked Yes | 3c | 927.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 5cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…d383backed Yes | 2c | 885.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 9c | 881$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.29 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52e9…45d4backed Yes | 1c | 838.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed Yes | 5c | 570$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b3…6e48backed Yes | 9c | 556.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes | 10c | 508$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 7c | 499.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…7849backed Yes | 8c | 472.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 9c | 470.48$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x547b…014cbacked Yes | 11c | 432.94$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344d…1278backed Yes | 7c | 274.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x777f…a1bbbacked Yes | 7c | 263.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 302 | 38.1%115 W · 187 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -13%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb117…c8a0backed Yes | 6c | 234.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8ebebacked Yes | 7c | 226.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa1…b55fbacked Yes | 9c | 221.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf268…a522backed Yes | 8c | 208.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdeec…a303backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -78.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fae…ce9fbacked Yes | 11c | 105$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7544…b545backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbc…d0b2backed Yes | 14c | 84.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?Yes won
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.