Commodities · resolved market
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x21438bc81e26319ae40a23e64637e7ce7e25faaa1904039e2a4fd3587f222fa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $697,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $374,441
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $697,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 41,365$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.35 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 7cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Yes | 0c | 34,518$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 34,446$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked Yes | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 39 | 2.6%1 W · 38 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 2cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95b3…9989backed Yes | 0c | 20,394$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.71 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +123.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…245ebacked Yes | 0c | 18,300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Yes | 1c | 15,962$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.78 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,665$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.33 | 37 | 8.1%3 W · 34 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf3d…864cbacked Yes | 1c | 10,419$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb3b…5129backed Yes | 1c | 10,265$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad60…97f4backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x254b…18c5backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9f…741cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…2cbfbacked Yes | 2c | 10,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 9,867$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.64 | 1,030 | 9.2%95 W · 935 L | -25.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e0…3b0cbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82a0…33a1backed Yes | 2c | 4,943$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.59 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x269c…58c2backed Yes | 6c | 4,796$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | +25%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 3,771$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 0c | 3,722$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +6.2wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd49c…d5fdbacked Yes | 1c | 3,520$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd40d…5652backed Yes | 1c | 2,929$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd9…240ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,289$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.14 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c8…da0ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,265$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.85 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5992…51e1backed Yes | 6c | 2,211$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.03 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x717e…ca8bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,941$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.44 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4785…cdfdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,606$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…8ebebacked Yes | 3c | 1,538$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1515…4320backed Yes | 8c | 1,450$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.76 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…d383backed Yes | 2c | 986.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…3d0bbacked Yes | 2c | 880$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08b…77b0backed Yes | 7c | 739.87$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yes | 2c | 634.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf038…daa8backed Yes | 10c | 572.73$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x182f…fd1abacked Yes | 6c | 500.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…5ae4backed Yes | 2c | 489.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ec…4612backed Yes | 10c | 478.68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e49…7849backed Yes | 9c | 430$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc307…8a38backed Yes | 3c | 407.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 5c | 372$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +5.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0103…067bbacked Yes | 3c | 368.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.61 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -81%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904f…50c6backed Yes | 5c | 310.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc680…fe2fbacked Yes | 5c | 310.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…b671backed Yes | 5c | 194.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 174.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +13.3wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca8…da83backed Yes | 9c | 118.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…63bebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Gold close at $2,500-2,600 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,600-2,700 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,700-2,800 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $2,900-3,000 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,000-3,100 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,100-3,200 at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025?Yes won
- Will Gold close under $2,500 at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.