Us Politics · resolved market
Will U.S. summer tourism decline in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14fb3ba2bd676cbd729c750c4afcc80f19f65298a9d365c53a39f8b77ff67477
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,346
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,346 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9529…7c6abacked No | 20c | 10,000$2,002 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,001.84 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 1c | 6,608$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.18 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67a9…c417backed No | 13c | 4,720$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.96 | 66 | 25.8%17 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 11c | 4,453$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.77 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x73bb…9473backed Yes | 74c | 3,101$2,304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$796.29 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd52…6f4fbacked No | 3c | 1,600$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 72c | 1,027$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.3 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c39…b7a6backed No | 5c | 1,024$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…af98backed No | 3c | 1,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…dc84backed No | 2c | 885.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 31cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb0…a6c3backed Yes | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa13…9c9abacked No | 3c | 776.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd3…c80fbacked No | 3c | 724.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +117.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4e…0bdabacked Yes | 77c | 700.66$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef84…df06backed No | 3c | 621.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9981…dec4backed Yes | 68c | 608.72$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2015…3fbfbacked No | 10c | 599.97$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9083…b804backed No | 9c | 504$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 489.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…a2e1backed No | 11c | 415.77$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.34 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 17c | 415$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7a…829ebacked No | 5c | 381.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…6d20backed Yes | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed No | 9c | 352.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…c7bcbacked No | 14c | 335.71$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0696…d56abacked Yes | 74c | 281$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed No | 12c | 244.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 66 | 34.8%23 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked No | 12c | 202.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7707…9415backed Yes | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 74cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b93…9ec4backed No | 19c | 195.67$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 75c | 190.16$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898b…7602backed No | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc6…62e0backed No | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2a…6eabbacked Yes | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 72c | 126.47$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 252 | 41.7%105 W · 147 L | -17.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 74c | 125.72$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.36 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dee…f4e6backed Yes | 74c | 125.67$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x93c6…d9dbbacked Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b06…1065backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed Yes | 78c | 88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac99…1380backed Yes | 71c | 70$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +3.7wins | +0.16per pick | 36cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…7d2dbacked Yes | 75c | 66.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.53 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3914…7f71backed Yes | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb277…d809backed Yes | 71c | 56.77$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.46 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 76c | 55$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c81…0e00backed Yes | 69c | 50.72$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044c…a476backed Yes | 75c | 39.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.94 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0192…26e3backed Yes | 69c | 36.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bec…3fa4backed Yes | 80c | 34.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.98 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…4864backed Yes | 73c | 32.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.85 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…c03ebacked Yes | 70c | 31.96$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 71c | 19.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…871bbacked Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.