Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd369d9027a35dcfccbd114e9b0416ebe83a0319def44023f3082d6e773932bf3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $289,153
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $273,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $289,153 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 261 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 3c | 31,501$1,101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100.86 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe333…b1e4backed No | 1c | 17,953$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…4485backed No | 0c | 10,854$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…6718backed No | 1c | 6,888$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.33 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed No | 2c | 5,311$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.99 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…3501backed No | 8c | 5,286$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -59%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c74…bd4ebacked No | 36c | 5,134$1,827 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,827.27 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…37acbacked No | 2c | 5,000$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…c668backed No | 7c | 4,500$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 35cpaid | +75.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 21c | 4,353$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.51 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…0a02backed Yes | 77c | 4,108$3,173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.2 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2759…09bfbacked No | 16c | 3,657$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -69.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 71c | 3,628$2,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,049.41 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 73c | 3,490$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$953.25 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…1196backed Yes | 61c | 3,356$2,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…4d75backed No | 29c | 3,160$908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked No | 10c | 3,000$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.92 | 59 | 22%13 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x301f…cda2backed No | 7c | 3,000$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 18c | 2,859$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.99 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…33bdbacked No | 21c | 2,778$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.68 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 66c | 2,591$1,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$883.93 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…d218backed No | 49c | 2,451$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.54 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a25…81d1backed Yes | 80c | 2,400$1,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.78 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…5eabbacked No | 3c | 2,377$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 71c | 2,243$1,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660.5 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 75c | 2,168$1,634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.4 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed No | 4c | 2,005$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.22 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cec…dc3ebacked No | 7c | 2,002$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3072…8604backed No | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 27c | 1,962$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 62c | 1,828$1,130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$697.79 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 20c | 1,783$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.04 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 66c | 1,731$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.24 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 18c | 1,597$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.72 | 166 | 51.2%85 W · 81 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…bfd6backed No | 26c | 1,535$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 67c | 1,487$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.37 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbafa…0232backed No | 7c | 1,408$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed No | 2c | 1,400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…04e2backed No | 30c | 1,395$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.15 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked No | 8c | 1,387$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed No | 3c | 1,370$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 38cpaid | -86.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 71c | 1,363$963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.69 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 6c | 1,339$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed No | 6c | 1,237$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…77fbbacked No | 31c | 1,100$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…d65abacked No | 7c | 1,088$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 30c | 1,050$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.96 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7727…fe33backed No | 1c | 1,040$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 19c | 1,035$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.59 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbd…cc5bbacked No | 8c | 1,028$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbd2…9b1abacked No | 4c | 1,026$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71d4…c50cbacked No | 6c | 1,017$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe281…e7bfbacked No | 7c | 1,017$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.17 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed No | 4c | 1,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed No | 7c | 1,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.93 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbe…ccb0backed Yes | 76c | 999.97$760 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.99 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 67c | 995.07$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.11 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e9…d6b0backed No | 8c | 950$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 6c | 941.53$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.67 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked No | 10c | 939.57$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +84.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…947cbacked No | 26c | 911.76$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc7…8f89backed No | 5c | 904.34$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 20c | 900$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…62efbacked No | 34c | 877.03$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 7c | 869.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64c5…feeabacked No | 12c | 845.91$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 6c | 837.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…3829backed No | 19c | 833.05$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…7b6cbacked No | 2c | 819.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked No | 36c | 819.41$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.57 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e9e…5f7fbacked Yes | 75c | 794.42$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…29b4backed No | 17c | 778.05$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…8e6bbacked No | 13c | 775.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed No | 6c | 750$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 13c | 742.27$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 49 | 26.5%13 W · 36 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed No | 14c | 734.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -10.5wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 67c | 718.99$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.29 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed Yes | 72c | 710.21$509 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.28 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 70c | 699.98$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.48 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…2994backed No | 7c | 685.71$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…c0efbacked Yes | 73c | 639.98$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.39 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…5a2cbacked No | 13c | 630.79$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.18 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +53%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd38d…5895backed No | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 75c | 616.88$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.22 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f63…19c9backed No | 48c | 583.94$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b84…b7d0backed No | 7c | 571.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 23c | 549.99$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 75c | 542.67$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.65 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 60c | 539$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.05 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…667ebacked No | 7c | 536.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.26 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x634e…4f7abacked No | 24c | 530.67$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ae…6264backed No | 5c | 530$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…693fbacked Yes | 39c | 520$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.7 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | +7.8wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 6c | 510$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 310 | 3.9%12 W · 298 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ec…8fd6backed No | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…9fa2backed No | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac9…155abacked No | 35c | 496$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f70…5e48backed No | 14c | 494.85$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 30cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 74c | 492$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.15 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…7c46backed Yes | 65c | 483.76$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.19 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?this page
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 10?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 27?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.