Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x02da54aa269f1592d91459fc02d3ebbecdb8178cc1e61ce7f2ca90bf6f2b0ff7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $127,981
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,725
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,981 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 101 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ecd…0787backed Yes | 0c | 11,132$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 1c | 8,799$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 37c | 6,113$2,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,231.62 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 6,043$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 34c | 5,448$1,839 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,839.07 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 0c | 4,020$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78ee…fa52backed Yes | 1c | 2,713$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 15c | 2,159$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.01 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf287…99d4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 50c | 1,950$975 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$975 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 44c | 1,635$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.63 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 43c | 1,500$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…abd5backed Yes | 22c | 1,471$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.96 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…b9ffbacked No | 50c | 1,452$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.28 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 38c | 1,331$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.83 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 59c | 1,317$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.23 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 1,266$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.02 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked No | 57c | 1,234$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.02 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed No | 52c | 1,234$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$586.89 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…0a02backed No | 61c | 1,000$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 48c | 940$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…763abacked No | 65c | 769.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.58 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…549bbacked No | 66c | 759.26$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.26 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 12c | 700$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.58 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 602.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 44c | 599.99$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 5c | 583.59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.41 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes | 35c | 545.37$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.62 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 64c | 544.2$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 78c | 534.55$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.41 | 678 | 41.6%282 W · 396 L | -20.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e8…311cbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd145…5f52backed No | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 58c | 499.98$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.99 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 42c | 428.31$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.03 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 63c | 411.16$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.13 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…feb2backed Yes | 42c | 400.01$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.32 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x23c6…9c19backed Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 75c | 393.16$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.27 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 12c | 371.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x662c…bfe7backed Yes | 42c | 320$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…4d75backed No | 65c | 319.21$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 18c | 310$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 35c | 300$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 10c | 284.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 30c | 217.42$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa577…b06abacked No | 40c | 211.33$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.73 | 75 | 61.3%46 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fd…ec0cbacked Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +72.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11ed…5145backed Yes | 6c | 198.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 77c | 195.68$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc28a…ac64backed Yes | 10c | 195.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1568…c958backed No | 59c | 177.85$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 24c | 173.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 266 | 16.5%44 W · 222 L | -24.7wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb760…ccd7backed No | 52c | 167.81$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.47 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 6c | 160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 19c | 130.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.34 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62d5…78d1backed No | 70c | 125$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 75c | 110.67$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.34 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 29c | 108.54$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae1d…e333backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 188 | 33.5%63 W · 125 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff22…8e79backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ca…038cbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed1…dc95backed No | 34c | 100$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +59%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…f68cbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x252e…5212backed Yes | 12c | 91.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…0177backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked No | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 67c | 75.63$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…5aa0backed Yes | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 219 | 26.5%58 W · 161 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +76.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfde5…676cbacked No | 56c | 75$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee3d…501bbacked No | 27c | 74.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 25cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3cc…65c7backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73e5…5bb5backed Yes | 74c | 68$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.32 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed No | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.5 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…d99dbacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…fb0cbacked Yes | 35c | 56.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd408…0883backed No | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x557a…413abacked No | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…2f4ebacked Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d5…af7fbacked Yes | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +3.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 60c | 44.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +5.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 31c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95c9…96afbacked No | 44c | 38.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca46…1ac8backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58d8…ab98backed Yes | 34c | 34.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283e…9316backed No | 69c | 31.73$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 68cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33ef…8694backed No | 56c | 29.86$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe7…a7d3backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 70c | 26.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb9…68d4backed Yes | 79c | 25.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed Yes | 57c | 22.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 75c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7db…65afbacked No | 74c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…0b9cbacked Yes | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74f0…0e43backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?this page
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 10?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 27?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.