Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x436440f3dc9066f11cf4805dca4454a1d2b0bc19a87d556cb0bdc3f902345ef2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $69,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $69,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc0f8…1844backed Yes | 2c | 14,814$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…679ebacked Yes | 2c | 3,200$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.4 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +245.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…9631backed Yes | 1c | 2,770$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,282$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02b1…fb65backed Yes | 1c | 1,559$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,539$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 2c | 1,058$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 2c | 999.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e194backed Yes | 3c | 874.59$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf92c…60e7backed Yes | 8c | 810.08$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.16 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.10per pick | 17cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 750$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd881…4eccbacked Yes | 3c | 714$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62e8…c7f6backed Yes | 3c | 571.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8933…1495backed No | 68c | 386.89$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.09 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 19c | 363.39$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.54 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 5c | 330$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked No | 70c | 292.14$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.78 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…943bbacked Yes | 15c | 219.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 30c | 189.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 169$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 865 | 42.3%366 W · 499 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 43c | 120.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.03 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bb…8d2cbacked Yes | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3d…498abacked Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4c…89afbacked No | 54c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850e…d172backed Yes | 75c | 31.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fed…3b22backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed No | 74c | 18.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.88 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 10?this page
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 27?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.