Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5026c11b7f6c65cbafcc4a065d182111b336dca3a3845d8a50de3ddfc7d358d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,473
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $104,197
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,473 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 128 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 56c | 5,784$3,267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,266.93 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 2c | 5,251$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 2c | 3,655$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.64 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 28c | 3,070$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.96 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 2,910$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.28 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x968b…549bbacked No | 35c | 2,876$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,876 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 2,740$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec1e…b2ccbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 25c | 2,486$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.11 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09d6…0fdabacked No | 68c | 2,414$1,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.89 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 3c | 2,147$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 78 | 17.9%14 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -49%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed Yes | 23c | 2,020$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.2 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e4…e01ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,691$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 30c | 1,640$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.6 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9c…173abacked No | 63c | 1,598$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf01…6865backed Yes | 13c | 1,527$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc047…fecbbacked Yes | 31c | 1,498$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 42cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,463$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 9c | 1,323$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8b…1ea1backed Yes | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…3b76backed No | 32c | 950.31$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked Yes | 1c | 943.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 125 | 24.8%31 W · 94 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff5…9711backed Yes | 10c | 933.88$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0e…746abacked Yes | 32c | 879.37$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.25 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 69c | 845.17$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.1 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 62c | 803.15$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.15 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…db8fbacked No | 65c | 795.13$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 25c | 759.2$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.14 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 38c | 750$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286 | 287 | 50.2%144 W · 143 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…0a02backed Yes | 34c | 708.77$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 35c | 626$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.84 | 89 | 28.1%25 W · 64 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | +74.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 7c | 621.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.44 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb481…bb2cbacked Yes | 33c | 601.69$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.51 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2604…d99dbacked Yes | 3c | 552.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf87…2955backed No | 59c | 509.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.66 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…fb0cbacked Yes | 4c | 509$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddf…0177backed Yes | 10c | 508.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 27c | 493.53$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.71 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 29c | 448.56$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.11 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x357f…aee2backed No | 64c | 445.87$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes | 38c | 427.62$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.14 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 9c | 402.69$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.27 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd2…943bbacked Yes | 10c | 397.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2882…9631backed Yes | 4c | 394.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed Yes | 25c | 392.88$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8797…bbbebacked Yes | 56c | 375$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.95 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 53c | 360.27$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.95 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 41c | 357.95$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.97 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked No | 20c | 305.8$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.37 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f48…3154backed Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -46%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 45c | 270$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.8 | 421 | 20.9%88 W · 333 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed No | 72c | 264.8$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.02 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 35c | 257.36$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 23c | 254$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e7…e194backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 27c | 240.75$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.44 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cd0…f582backed Yes | 20c | 230.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf6…8e9abacked Yes | 12c | 230$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 53 | 32.1%17 W · 36 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 10c | 226.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.69 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39ec…53c9backed Yes | 33c | 219.33$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0601…b06fbacked Yes | 11c | 219.12$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb288…fa0fbacked No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…ff23backed No | 71c | 200$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 66cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 48c | 200$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaab…24ddbacked No | 39c | 200$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.05 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 68c | 200$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +10.9wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4bbf…8e76backed No | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 38c | 199.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.58 | 147 | 43.5%64 W · 83 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 78c | 192.44$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf2…8b62backed No | 50c | 188.22$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 25c | 187.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.81 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed Yes | 37c | 171$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.87 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 37c | 162.86$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.62 | 136 | 29.4%40 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…763abacked No | 62c | 162.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f4b1backed Yes | 62c | 154.09$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.54 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0faf…d0d9backed Yes | 23c | 153.64$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 173 | 47.4%82 W · 91 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 72c | 152.87$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 33c | 150$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2069…c7cfbacked No | 73c | 142.56$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 32c | 141.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea6…b249backed Yes | 13c | 138.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…ff53backed No | 42c | 132.06$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.59 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x304c…7a74backed Yes | 29c | 122.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 35cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 46c | 120.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.31 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4da…2db1backed Yes | 64c | 105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd14e…7e5fbacked Yes | 50c | 103.44$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 153 | 24.8%38 W · 115 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…70d7backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff56…ca81backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed Yes | 24c | 99.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ee…119bbacked Yes | 22c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed No | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?this page
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 10?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 27?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.