Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc23f9b92d4179611ecf2d28e2ae73b4c8da7ce2fb25564d70225f59e537af3bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $860,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $801,235
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $860,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 501 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 12c | 30,957$3,590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,589.73 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…f0e7backed Yes | 15c | 23,041$3,364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,364.06 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…cb10backed Yes | 37c | 21,868$8,078 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,078.15 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 20c | 19,460$3,912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,912.02 | 428 | 18.7%80 W · 348 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…56b5backed Yes | 11c | 18,635$2,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000.65 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Yes | 59c | 18,208$10,788 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,787.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 7c | 16,152$1,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,195.05 | 91 | 54.9%50 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 40c | 14,690$5,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,874.26 | 119 | 44.5%53 W · 66 L | -17.8wins | -0.15per pick | 59cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9359…4aeebacked Yes | 12c | 13,966$1,702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,701.77 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 17c | 8,569$1,486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.33 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xec0b…69e6backed Yes | 22c | 8,168$1,776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,776 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 64c | 8,040$5,133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,906.38 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eba…33bdbacked No | 49c | 7,654$3,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,885.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa99c…3070backed No | 36c | 6,682$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,265.3 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c96…3eefbacked Yes | 12c | 6,517$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$751.06 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +105.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf00a…c77cbacked Yes | 22c | 6,489$1,409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,409.34 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x246b…1196backed Yes | 32c | 6,468$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.09 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…d218backed No | 63c | 6,289$3,967 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,321.65 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ca…faa7backed No | 51c | 5,747$2,934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,812.77 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 72c | 5,649$4,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.54 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b0…881dbacked Yes | 7c | 5,500$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c97…1b68backed Yes | 20c | 5,302$1,047 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.45 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6f…31debacked Yes | 13c | 5,249$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 19cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed Yes | 3c | 5,042$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.26 | 95 | 35.8%34 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d563backed No | 25c | 4,673$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,486.35 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +6.7wins | +0.22per pick | 54cpaid | +50%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0fda…5b87backed No | 47c | 4,510$2,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.96 | 79 | 40.5%32 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 30c | 4,373$1,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,329.49 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe52c…6924backed No | 75c | 4,351$3,263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,087.81 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.15per pick | 70cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 8c | 3,986$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.56 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 21c | 3,888$810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$810.41 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…446dbacked Yes | 11c | 3,814$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$434.86 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 65c | 3,807$2,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.22per pick | 41cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…cbdcbacked No | 79c | 3,793$3,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.92 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe312…3b76backed No | 19c | 3,786$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,064.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 34cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac9…155abacked No | 19c | 3,665$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,954.2 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb40…3612backed Yes | 37c | 3,631$1,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,353.52 | 98 | 27.6%27 W · 71 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -46%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…4d75backed No | 38c | 3,609$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,241.77 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 3c | 3,566$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.18 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…215dbacked No | 61c | 3,556$2,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.41 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 32c | 3,550$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.48 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 60c | 3,500$2,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…662ebacked Yes | 71c | 3,438$2,432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,432.37 | 38 | 23.7%9 W · 29 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked Yes | 37c | 3,365$1,258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.56 | 88 | 27.3%24 W · 64 L | -8.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6e78…56b0backed Yes | 13c | 3,363$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…4665backed No | 71c | 3,273$2,320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.26 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce69…3e08backed No | 18c | 3,108$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,542 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 10c | 3,096$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.01 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf385…364cbacked Yes | 40c | 3,043$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 71c | 3,029$2,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.12 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 19c | 3,011$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.76 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed No | 44c | 2,914$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.79 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 56c | 2,903$1,638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,265.05 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32be…bac4backed Yes | 29c | 2,786$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$794.53 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed Yes | 11c | 2,626$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.66 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +3.9wins | +0.24per pick | 7cpaid | +413.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa493…612ebacked Yes | 23c | 2,533$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$574.18 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2d…dbcbbacked No | 48c | 2,500$1,197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.58 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f2…0c24backed Yes | 20c | 2,491$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.21 | 27 | 14.8%4 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…7c46backed No | 70c | 2,483$1,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.24 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…947cbacked No | 58c | 2,371$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.25 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6453…5553backed Yes | 79c | 2,360$1,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,860.83 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 52c | 2,349$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,130.51 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7994…c512backed Yes | 35c | 2,298$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800.42 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 32c | 2,233$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.67 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 20c | 2,232$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.33 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7078…31fcbacked Yes | 27c | 2,212$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…60f2backed No | 50c | 2,150$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.59 | 66 | 40.9%27 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc976…0ad5backed Yes | 25c | 2,102$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.5 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 7c | 2,100$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d9f…9790backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 353 | 47%166 W · 187 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 63c | 1,948$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.67 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 65c | 1,939$1,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$681.28 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…65d9backed Yes | 43c | 1,927$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836.04 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -4.8wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 75c | 1,890$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.78 | 59 | 27.1%16 W · 43 L | -8.4wins | -0.14per pick | 41cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed Yes | 16c | 1,869$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.12 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f0…58dfbacked No | 13c | 1,846$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.02 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +11.8wins | +0.38per pick | 14cpaid | +350.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa395…6782backed No | 64c | 1,736$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +57.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 42c | 1,724$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730.68 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…e05dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,698$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…106abacked Yes | 63c | 1,628$1,025 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,025.45 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 23c | 1,560$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.68 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 50c | 1,551$783 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.08 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ef…81c0backed No | 16c | 1,521$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +544.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…0a02backed No | 61c | 1,516$918 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$597.53 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 14c | 1,489$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,284.45 | 423 | 29.1%123 W · 300 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x332a…33babacked Yes | 57c | 1,484$849 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$848.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f6…c0efbacked Yes | 11c | 1,455$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 28cpaid | -80.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 18c | 1,427$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.89 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…6718backed No | 58c | 1,391$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$582.61 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0026…aef7backed Yes | 62c | 1,348$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$840.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 61cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 15c | 1,335$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2186…2948backed No | 52c | 1,328$689 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 79c | 1,311$1,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1115…feb2backed Yes | 14c | 1,293$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.33 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 8c | 1,293$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5805…fab2backed Yes | 10c | 1,250$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef60…d6c2backed No | 46c | 1,250$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$675.35 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x193c…8aeebacked Yes | 8c | 1,244$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed No | 55c | 1,228$679 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.83 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 12c | 1,166$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.08 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | +7.6wins | +0.15per pick | 13cpaid | +151%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 14c | 1,161$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.57 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?this page
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 10?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.