Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb59637609625d6d4724f62d31e11747dfe287c4b5de5397917f7b2ab9d770b84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,759
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a4e…8df7backed No | 15c | 2,704$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b2…bfd6backed No | 20c | 1,975$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fd…8bc3backed No | 10c | 1,532$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.01 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x402d…53c0backed No | 1c | 1,190$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.48 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf44…3829backed No | 22c | 1,129$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b09…4d75backed No | 9c | 1,038$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…7664backed No | 5c | 1,024$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 18cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…8e6bbacked No | 10c | 1,014$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76e5…4485backed No | 2c | 903.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634e…4f7abacked No | 17c | 848.65$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked Yes | 79c | 828.91$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.96 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6af…9fa2backed No | 15c | 702.27$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 47cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42f…78a0backed No | 18c | 700$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc377…29b4backed No | 18c | 683.65$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe964…f5a9backed No | 11c | 662.52$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.25 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 29cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…6662backed No | 8c | 637.61$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x675a…0551backed No | 9c | 623.73$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed No | 14c | 623.35$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.26 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c63…555ebacked No | 34c | 589.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa543…d47ebacked No | 9c | 559$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 76c | 520.06$393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.76 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 71c | 408.91$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 202 | 47%95 W · 107 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c5…fc89backed No | 9c | 374.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…0550backed No | 9c | 339.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9b…b444backed No | 15c | 332.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed No | 13c | 331.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 147 | 24.5%36 W · 111 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…667ebacked No | 6c | 328.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…fb1abacked No | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 65c | 286.86$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.01 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed No | 23c | 251.71$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.88 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 25cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4667…e1ddbacked No | 11c | 245$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 75c | 240$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e1…7265backed No | 17c | 237.51$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…8d85backed Yes | 77c | 226.67$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.04 | 202 | 39.1%79 W · 123 L | +20.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb42b…8225backed No | 16c | 209.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00c4…bcd4backed No | 24c | 204.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d01…1645backed No | 17c | 202$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 72c | 200$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bff…63e0backed No | 15c | 174$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed No | 17c | 149.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d4…3562backed No | 12c | 145.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb0…fdc3backed No | 21c | 145.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 14c | 142.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x990c…5ccfbacked No | 23c | 140.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae9…ae32backed No | 13c | 136.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc282…d218backed No | 15c | 131.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -60.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe709…9d39backed No | 15c | 126$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…3836backed No | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31df…68d1backed No | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…5653backed No | 22c | 110$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 87 | 27.6%24 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…e34cbacked No | 19c | 106.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…0d70backed No | 17c | 105.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 101 | 53.5%54 W · 47 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x297a…92e0backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5047…f67fbacked No | 15c | 95.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a9…837fbacked No | 30c | 93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 80c | 84$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed32…20d6backed Yes | 67c | 70.64$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6a…a9f8backed No | 16c | 68.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2762…d65abacked No | 17c | 64.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd774…82cdbacked No | 33c | 60.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eea…281dbacked Yes | 77c | 42.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 69c | 25.19$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 207 | 8.2%17 W · 190 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -88.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 10?this page
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by October 3?Yes won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 10?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 15?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 20?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 27?No won
- Will Israel raid Gaza aid flotilla by September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.