Middle East · resolved market
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy in 2024?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3bc5eaeb9fc756d95a680a06d3c99134879cdabd406ca5b813c841d43930b8ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $191,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $281,141
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $191,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96a4…4d01backed Yes | 1c | 5,656$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.44 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 11c | 3,759$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.46 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 3c | 3,431$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.84 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 3c | 3,300$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.96 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 2c | 2,963$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.91 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xce64…b8f5backed Yes | 10c | 2,830$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.31 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…60e1backed Yes | 5c | 2,181$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.16 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3115…83f4backed Yes | 9c | 1,886$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7851backed Yes | 1c | 1,646$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2388backed Yes | 9c | 1,635$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc3…7064backed Yes | 6c | 1,389$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.57 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,239$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.58 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…f84abacked Yes | 3c | 1,062$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x693a…0ed9backed Yes | 3c | 719.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…c7e2backed Yes | 2c | 700$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc429…2d7dbacked Yes | 5c | 654.46$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd12b…a598backed Yes | 3c | 645.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…e16dbacked Yes | 5c | 520$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 4c | 506.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.58 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 499$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c31…ea4bbacked Yes | 9c | 461$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 12cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x842e…c9c9backed Yes | 2c | 460.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…870dbacked Yes | 6c | 412.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…006ebacked Yes | 3c | 404.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8db7…dcedbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 9.3%4 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2df…168fbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82dd…14c3backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ff…0811backed Yes | 5c | 220$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 6c | 212.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab2…0e95backed Yes | 9c | 211.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x139d…fe64backed Yes | 11c | 205$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 60 | 23.3%14 W · 46 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb555…e61bbacked Yes | 8c | 191$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…6d20backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes | 9c | 121$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…ae9bbacked Yes | 9c | 112.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6d…3093backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…d4febacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.