TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will $Fartcoin hit $1b FDV in 2024?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$103,499
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$97,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $103,499 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x013d…3e88backed No3c14,352$446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.941637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7eed…5a28backed Yes49c8,215$4,054 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,160.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+102.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No5c3,545$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.182931%9 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf74a…ea13backed No38c2,800$1,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ef2…6d23backed No8c2,750$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15b7…b75dbacked No22c2,615$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570.7820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6038…4c4abacked No38c2,600$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…cca0backed No38c2,500$950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked No30c2,428$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.65575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes54c2,319$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,061.73633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid-36.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Yes61c2,096$1,268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$827.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+65.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cb5…b536backed No74c2,000$1,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,479.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb49…a264backed Yes60c1,600$960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$640250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc497…767abacked No12c1,600$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-69.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked No3c1,504$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.61456.7%3 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick3cpaid+272.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a18…3ee8backed Yes62c1,450$899 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5511100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2726…c523backed Yes62c1,400$868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5321100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dc…0865backed Yes62c1,350$837 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9079…73eebacked No47c1,300$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a69…89f2backed Yes53c1,300$689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6111100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66aa…d8cebacked Yes55c1,300$715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5851100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5a2…cf83backed No38c1,300$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9fb…835fbacked No45c1,300$585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No47c1,294$602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602.161560%9 W · 6 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+26.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e2a…31aabacked Yes62c1,250$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe538…5461backed Yes62c1,250$775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4751100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa046…00c7backed Yes45c1,203$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.57540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xedbb…710abacked Yes62c1,200$744 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed Yes33c998.07$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$672.961844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No21c856.97$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.8633329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed No34c853.64$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.21848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a41…e957backed No40c850$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…f81dbacked No30c800.56$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick31cpaid+37.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x141c…7154backed No37c774.82$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.16616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-77.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x66fa…89b2backed No40c750$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed No36c749.98$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacd9…3d87backed Yes56c727$404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.751154.5%6 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.26per pick28cpaid+74.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd1c…e2d3backed No40c714.2$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.75366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xe6c7…483abacked Yes62c700$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$266250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5e…3e95backed No11c698.14$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x914f…1025backed Yes17c686.56$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.84333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick9cpaid+96.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd5bc…e0f7backed No39c624.49$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd758…7af8backed No49c609.25$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed No38c602.58$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf6…42adbacked Yes62c600$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2282100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+112.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No44c552.79$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.2321240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6615…665dbacked No3c500$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9777…2a8dbacked No29c499.95$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.98128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick19cpaid-88.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed No21c456.04$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.814316.3%7 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6245…d3c0backed No44c430$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.81241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-25%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dfe…b3ddbacked No55c420.58$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.2910462.5%65 W · 39 L+13.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+22.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x7162…9616backed No50c403.71$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9c53…44f2backed No18c400$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c27…1555backed No66c381.54$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No75c378.69$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.222450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d5e…5d34backed Yes72c356.8$257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.944100%4 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa5d7…c5afbacked Yes67c352.19$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9738…9818backed No77c335.64$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.6650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-24.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8988…ef15backed No41c329.07$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd87b…adedbacked No50c323.83$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad2…f7f0backed No75c302.96$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked No24c301$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.992218.2%4 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-58.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed No46c300.27$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f46…7c81backed Yes69c296.41$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.45333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-51.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe73f…740bbacked Yes68c292.26$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.26250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-26.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x725f…06c2backed No39c256.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd942…47f3backed No76c250$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19070%0 W · 7 L-3.8wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No15c250$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.751540%6 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-34.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x921a…ee8dbacked Yes23c245.81$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.95633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick26cpaid-0.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8cf…6b0bbacked No41c241.2$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9df7…3155backed Yes54c240.22$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.55757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.29per pick28cpaid+155.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5219…ac3abacked Yes28c215.76$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.76333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid+19.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44dd…10dfbacked No64c202.02$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2920%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc483…2fe7backed No26c192.31$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b6a…3eedbacked No17c180$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.630%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x264e…1eb8backed No74c159.99$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb92…8f58backed No28c150$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes27c148.52$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.52475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+130.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No75c147.01$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.267919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6bb1…477dbacked No75c141.33$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e9a…bc84backed No50c139.2$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.620%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No59c135.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.0213424.6%33 W · 101 L-14.8wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-33.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5a99…f209backed No18c134.18$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1831…2b79backed Yes27c130$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+84.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbc6…c602backed No78c127.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed No11c120$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8238.7%2 W · 21 L-3.7wins-0.16per pick25cpaid-61.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc324…4cd6backed No68c100.38$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.86520%1 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.34per pick54cpaid-69.2%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe8a5…d038backed No47c100$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-55.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked No32c99.99$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-63.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe38d…6c36backed Yes71c98.08$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.08520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-72%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes59c97.68$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.052045%9 W · 11 L+3.4wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+281.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x00c6…c32dbacked No33c96.03$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.66366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+48.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48da…0419backed No64c92.87$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.441968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+46.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0xcf07…f33dbacked No47c89.79$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.2250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-37.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40b2…c0c1backed Yes35c86.29$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.65per pick35cpaid+187.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e94…ac27backed No42c85.45$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.0210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb692…7c83backed No25c81.35$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked No28c79.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-15.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x71c1…e358backed Yes26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.74per pick26cpaid+284.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe122…33febacked Yes54c73.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.