Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaf4c4b173d38704562d6a274f01f160dc54fd18e1d53d66fc68db6e831aa7df7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $86,033
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $86,033 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 33c | 4,039$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,722.01 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…a17cbacked Yes | 74c | 3,468$2,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.49 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…2d98backed Yes | 11c | 3,044$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,717.04 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 50c | 1,620$805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$814.93 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcab9…99d0backed No | 52c | 1,603$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.83 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 10c | 1,544$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.64 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked Yes | 45c | 1,325$592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed Yes | 11c | 1,250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +140.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,202$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.56 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 33c | 1,186$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.94 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 11c | 986.04$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.12 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 2c | 894.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.33 | 271 | 5.2%14 W · 257 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…a490backed Yes | 2c | 888.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$868.94 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb5c2…1750backed Yes | 2c | 839.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.14 | 209 | 7.7%16 W · 193 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -17%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 78c | 664.99$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.39 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 42c | 659.99$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36f1…ec06backed Yes | 76c | 658.73$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 53c | 614.78$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.34 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 7c | 611$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.36 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…bdf6backed Yes | 59c | 594$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed No | 23c | 542.44$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.38 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed No | 21c | 514.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.94 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 3c | 503.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.14 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 67c | 499.87$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.87 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed Yes | 79c | 494.64$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.32 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed No | 59c | 488.32$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.9 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…0432backed Yes | 18c | 482.99$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.99 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 36c | 477.98$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.39 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 40c | 470$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.29 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 68c | 451.81$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.42 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 80c | 447.81$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.35 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 40c | 446.22$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.23 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 23c | 376$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.11 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 47c | 328.64$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.05 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 57c | 322$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.88 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed Yes | 5c | 319.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.53 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | +179.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 77c | 294.29$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.69 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 79c | 246.62$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…53fdbacked Yes | 39c | 240$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.45 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 58c | 222.48$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.15 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 53c | 220$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.42 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 79c | 214.02$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.89 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8f7ebacked Yes | 70c | 211.3$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.01 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 69cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 66c | 208.46$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.33 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 46c | 204.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.97 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 50c | 201.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec2f…43a2backed Yes | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.44 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…cd76backed Yes | 54c | 183.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.52 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…0593backed Yes | 78c | 180.55$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…f9fbbacked Yes | 48c | 177.37$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.43 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 17c | 176.83$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.29 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…11c2backed Yes | 63c | 158.97$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…e7d8backed Yes | 57c | 157.87$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x896a…7b9cbacked Yes | 66c | 150.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6030…6f2ebacked Yes | 14c | 146.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.47 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +75%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 54c | 146.47$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.38 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f08…e130backed Yes | 70c | 143.42$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9241…f41cbacked Yes | 80c | 120.02$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ede…730abacked Yes | 60c | 112.41$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.44 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e1…4252backed Yes | 56c | 107.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes | 79c | 107.84$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.84 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 19c | 107.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…4a06backed No | 15c | 103.74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…3a48backed No | 41c | 101$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.44 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 66c | 100.18$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.57 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.1 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Yes | 70c | 97.45$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 34c | 93.64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.05 | 503 | 19.5%98 W · 405 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 54c | 92.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.46 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 59c | 88.25$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.1 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd476…ff0ebacked Yes | 23c | 87.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3493…40afbacked Yes | 66c | 86.37$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ea8…0877backed Yes | 60c | 75.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…ec80backed Yes | 70c | 74.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…29edbacked Yes | 65c | 70.34$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac96…7ec2backed Yes | 75c | 66.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a39…47cbbacked Yes | 18c | 65.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +441.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…ad00backed Yes | 19c | 65.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +427.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c91…1971backed No | 49c | 63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b4b…8790backed Yes | 80c | 62.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed Yes | 23c | 60$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4905…0527backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…6d20backed No | 79c | 56.61$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0168…ab3fbacked No | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 33c | 53.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ca…ca7cbacked Yes | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x946f…3bf2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.80per pick | 20cpaid | +395%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 74c | 48.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…a5e5backed Yes | 42c | 47.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +135.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…3193backed No | 50c | 45.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa899…f68dbacked Yes | 54c | 44$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.37 | 86 | 10.5%9 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9d3…63d9backed No | 67c | 42.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…c5b2backed Yes | 72c | 41.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…ca14backed Yes | 36c | 41.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.61 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5a…4cc4backed Yes | 35c | 39.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1500 or more times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1000 and 1049 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1050 and 1099 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1100 and 1149 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1150 and 1199 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1200 and 1249 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1250 and 1299 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1300 and 1349 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1350 and 1399 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1400 and 1449 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1450 and 1499 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 700 and 749 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 750 and 799 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 800 and 849 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 850 and 899 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 950 and 999 times September 1–30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.