Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 1500 or more times September 1–30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x908eaa99e9b6c8bca654bed16096dc1cf87b7987e280d344345229d05ccb89f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,030
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,030 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 0c | 2,529$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 31c | 2,442$760 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$760.42 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb220…2a5dbacked Yes | 23c | 2,110$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.31 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…a490backed Yes | 30c | 2,007$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…11c2backed Yes | 32c | 2,003$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd150…264fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,317$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 78c | 1,309$1,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.61 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…ea39backed Yes | 32c | 1,206$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +298.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Yes | 34c | 1,202$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.17 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 1,200$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374 | 426 | 28.2%120 W · 306 L | -38.2wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.23 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…b0e0backed No | 70c | 999.99$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 27c | 999.69$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.68 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed No | 75c | 999.16$752 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.2 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 837.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 34c | 788$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.5 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3336…f823backed Yes | 35c | 700$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 25c | 666$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b89…e708backed Yes | 15c | 662.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 33c | 635.58$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.56 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 11c | 626$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.83 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 32c | 615.98$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.83 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 19c | 599.22$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.16 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 69c | 584.43$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.22 | 518 | 45.9%238 W · 280 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed No | 71c | 565.88$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 31c | 530.17$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.73 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 75c | 475.39$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.99 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 70c | 438.86$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 75c | 416.98$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.98 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7250…5468backed No | 76c | 374.48$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.13 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 365.3$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.53 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…143cbacked Yes | 28c | 363.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe9…78cabacked Yes | 23c | 343.74$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed No | 68c | 325.25$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.35 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c19…66f0backed Yes | 34c | 314$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…1076backed Yes | 33c | 306.48$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 14c | 285.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde00…1191backed No | 65c | 276.92$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82d0…9637backed Yes | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…1cd2backed Yes | 36c | 220$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40af…d8eebacked Yes | 34c | 208.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.33 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…ca14backed Yes | 17c | 206.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +6.2wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0d3…634fbacked Yes | 27c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 26c | 199.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 79c | 198$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.7 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 71c | 177$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 52cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5634…0e95backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…32c2backed Yes | 31c | 129.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b6…f279backed No | 71c | 115.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.68 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 11c | 112.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ce…5839backed Yes | 37c | 111$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 72c | 107.97$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 15c | 102.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2028…e658backed Yes | 14c | 100.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x669d…19b0backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +148.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3167…679ebacked No | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x845e…9401backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7b5…8e60backed Yes | 28c | 88.04$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…f7a4backed No | 63c | 86$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa9e…70bcbacked No | 78c | 79.2$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5dcc…cdc0backed Yes | 37c | 75.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -55%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0391…2ecfbacked Yes | 33c | 74.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…b4a8backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…a4fcbacked No | 66c | 71.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…3d9fbacked Yes | 15c | 68.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 26c | 65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dec…16f9backed Yes | 35c | 60.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 24c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.58 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 36c | 55.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x912a…0f92backed No | 66c | 50.1$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 85 | 14.1%12 W · 73 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd79…fe86backed Yes | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7965…e542backed No | 67c | 49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 29c | 42.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 69c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8304…f086backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90d2…8df9backed No | 80c | 38.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…b348backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked No | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 1500 or more times September 1–30?this page
- Will Elon tweet between 1000 and 1049 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1050 and 1099 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1100 and 1149 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1150 and 1199 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1200 and 1249 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1250 and 1299 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1300 and 1349 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1350 and 1399 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1400 and 1449 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1450 and 1499 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 700 and 749 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 750 and 799 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 800 and 849 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 850 and 899 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet between 950 and 999 times September 1–30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.