Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 1000 and 1049 times September 1–30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3a37ab1d8a140ce10415c248d6956c39c1700a6a4616d50f184c4698555f0274
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,790
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,370
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,790 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 2c | 4,205$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…11c2backed Yes | 20c | 3,031$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,990$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…2d98backed Yes | 4c | 2,802$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.06 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6201…6fbdbacked Yes | 0c | 2,083$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,040$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 1c | 1,505$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 79c | 1,394$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.73 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x40af…d8eebacked Yes | 3c | 1,114$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 29 | 6.9%2 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 14cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 6c | 807.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.85 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 2c | 757.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 4c | 579.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…a490backed Yes | 5c | 443.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 12c | 376.03$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.18 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0942…0155backed Yes | 5c | 364.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 4c | 330$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…162fbacked Yes | 27c | 250$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 5c | 233$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…6bd7backed Yes | 7c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 247 | 10.9%27 W · 220 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed Yes | 7c | 179.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9f9…427abacked Yes | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fb…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 134.28$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…cd76backed Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…3a48backed Yes | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed Yes | 16c | 104.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x15f1…0593backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…53fdbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 15c | 91.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf737…9f0dbacked No | 77c | 67.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa314…5ba7backed Yes | 21c | 53.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -75%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7965…e542backed Yes | 39c | 31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 1000 and 1049 times September 1–30?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1500 or more times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1050 and 1099 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1100 and 1149 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1150 and 1199 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1200 and 1249 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1250 and 1299 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1300 and 1349 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1350 and 1399 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1400 and 1449 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1450 and 1499 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 700 and 749 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 750 and 799 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 800 and 849 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 850 and 899 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet between 950 and 999 times September 1–30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.