Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet between 950 and 999 times September 1–30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x753c68a321eaf3b6a4ebd42d8ada5d437a03739dacddd93fa80afd28453251ab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $74,789
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,789 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 91 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 2c | 5,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 42c | 4,066$1,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,723.57 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe583…2d98backed Yes | 11c | 3,157$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 7c | 1,818$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 8c | 1,254$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.47 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed Yes | 41c | 1,000$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.78 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,000$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6692…1125backed Yes | 42c | 961.33$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 18c | 916.29$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.58 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…a490backed Yes | 5c | 823.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +215.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeebf…065ebacked Yes | 31c | 820.29$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 31c | 714.69$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1032…77f1backed Yes | 3c | 708$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1018…7264backed Yes | 27c | 688.73$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.32 | 89 | 24.7%22 W · 67 L | -8.0wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 25c | 675$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.39 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e343backed Yes | 5c | 638.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 15c | 601.42$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.98 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 12c | 596.05$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb57b…73ecbacked Yes | 18c | 566.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -78.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75c4…4cd0backed Yes | 9c | 557.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb4…3a48backed Yes | 27c | 525.81$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.34 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -67%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 75c | 517.02$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.94 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 6c | 497.93$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…16a6backed Yes | 14c | 483.97$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.24 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 19c | 483.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.23 | 150 | 7.3%11 W · 139 L | -11.1wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed No | 76c | 480.13$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.84 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a24…71e8backed Yes | 5c | 480.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 51 | 15.7%8 W · 43 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 23c | 469.3$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 18c | 424$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.32 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 20c | 405.75$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.74 | 185 | 31.4%58 W · 127 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -36%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 11c | 394.26$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc981…a75dbacked Yes | 9c | 385.87$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.81 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe30e…8edfbacked Yes | 43c | 353.43$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.8 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5632…748dbacked Yes | 6c | 350$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 50 | 18%9 W · 41 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…53fdbacked Yes | 5c | 340.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 48c | 330.04$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.67 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked Yes | 51c | 328.64$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.55 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8593…c931backed Yes | 19c | 327.89$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 130 | 20%26 W · 104 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 10c | 322$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 89 | 22.5%20 W · 69 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 10c | 319.52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6cd…4e7fbacked Yes | 33c | 302.06$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +180.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…5788backed Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…e7d8backed Yes | 36c | 295.29$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -26%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes | 13c | 254.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 519 | 8.3%43 W · 476 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed Yes | 39c | 253.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Yes | 5c | 250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 78 | 25.6%20 W · 58 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8257…da02backed Yes | 9c | 250$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e59…a17cbacked No | 62c | 243.44$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 8c | 238.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 40c | 220$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.67 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be3…688fbacked Yes | 22c | 196.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.02 | 34 | 20.6%7 W · 27 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed1…11c2backed Yes | 55c | 174.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…f015backed Yes | 17c | 156$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d5f…b380backed Yes | 8c | 152.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 430 | 27%116 W · 314 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed Yes | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b08…24a6backed Yes | 11c | 144.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…2a75backed Yes | 32c | 142.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 59c | 140.13$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.12 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1974…29edbacked Yes | 24c | 138.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79ae…b9ffbacked Yes | 14c | 126.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed No | 21c | 124$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Yes | 27c | 121$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.02 | 82 | 11%9 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…0c6dbacked Yes | 11c | 117.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 84 | 13.1%11 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97df…3088backed Yes | 11c | 111.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa82d…f5c0backed Yes | 14c | 106.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 19c | 103.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc510…4a06backed Yes | 12c | 102.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…c005backed Yes | 35c | 94.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c80…9564backed Yes | 28c | 88.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 179 | 20.7%37 W · 142 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Yes | 56c | 80.68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes | 79c | 80$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64c3…cd76backed Yes | 40c | 75.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9108…89a1backed Yes | 30c | 68.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120d…710ebacked Yes | 68c | 67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.68per pick | 68cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf67c…c5b2backed Yes | 32c | 62.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 69c | 60.15$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ede…730abacked Yes | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe3…0a16backed Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 49c | 53.71$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 56c | 41.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.47 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff30…2f90backed Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.32per pick | 43cpaid | -80.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x838c…8fccbacked No | 73c | 27.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…ec80backed Yes | 78c | 25.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a74…3193backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e66…0cb2backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet between 950 and 999 times September 1–30?this page
- Will Elon tweet 1500 or more times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1000 and 1049 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1050 and 1099 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1100 and 1149 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1150 and 1199 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1200 and 1249 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1250 and 1299 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1300 and 1349 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1350 and 1399 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1400 and 1449 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 1450 and 1499 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 700 and 749 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 750 and 799 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 800 and 849 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 850 and 899 times September 1–30?No won
- Will Elon tweet between 900 and 949 times September 1–30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.