Movies · resolved market
'Deadpool & Wolverine' over $600m by Labor Day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dc21d55db6a6074fbb630b08fa1fa7ee51b94a687661364dd7124d77aa62271
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $790,461
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,068,612
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $790,461 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9739…159fbacked No | 2c | 234,991$4,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,454.71 | 121 | 4.1%5 W · 116 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85fe…dedfbacked No | 1c | 20,670$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b22…7c5cbacked No | 2c | 14,901$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.4 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb438…b113backed No | 3c | 14,278$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0673…d7d0backed No | 17c | 14,000$2,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,380 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed No | 5c | 11,568$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.6 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked No | 14c | 9,375$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.13 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…730bbacked No | 4c | 9,045$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed Yes | 79c | 7,111$5,583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.66 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…ff06backed No | 6c | 6,381$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.91 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2c1…56f0backed No | 1c | 4,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1514…2624backed No | 6c | 3,956$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.37 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 17c | 3,053$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.26 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435c…8079backed No | 1c | 2,900$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2af1…ec07backed No | 1c | 2,668$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9059…a4fabacked No | 5c | 2,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 16c | 1,929$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.54 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaca6…6b28backed No | 11c | 1,580$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.96 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a6…6b75backed Yes | 75c | 1,317$981 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.29 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 56cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 9c | 1,289$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.17 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1012…47cebacked No | 7c | 1,165$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc615…221dbacked Yes | 72c | 1,111$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.08 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc110…2a95backed No | 5c | 1,089$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 77c | 1,044$801 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.63 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3397…fe08backed No | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed No | 20c | 899.73$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.57 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cb6…256dbacked No | 13c | 810.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 2c | 800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff4…fb3ebacked No | 18c | 754.55$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes | 70c | 699.42$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.83 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…dad2backed No | 7c | 687.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…0ba7backed No | 6c | 670$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked No | 3c | 582.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4437…503ebacked No | 4c | 542$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd614…1fa3backed No | 14c | 500$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2722…7e87backed No | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0513…2157backed No | 11c | 500$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 60 | 1.7%1 W · 59 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed No | 4c | 400.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb61…a3aabacked No | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d62cbacked No | 16c | 390.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed No | 12c | 370$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.4 | 69 | 37.7%26 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6f9…4252backed No | 21c | 322.07$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8496…1cecbacked No | 8c | 312.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3399…e5fbbacked No | 10c | 300$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…c86cbacked No | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed Yes | 80c | 263.5$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.27 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -3.9wins | -0.28per pick | 35cpaid | -91%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…0f1ebacked No | 15c | 228.12$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd46c…f641backed No | 15c | 219$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83fd…25b2backed Yes | 74c | 200.81$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe648…bdfbbacked No | 11c | 174.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 81 | 30.9%25 W · 56 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…2b76backed No | 7c | 159.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -42%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…1d72backed No | 9c | 152$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 80c | 147.7$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.54 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…b58cbacked Yes | 71c | 133.8$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36d…36eebacked No | 14c | 124.15$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3195…a94fbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1df…0f37backed No | 18c | 92.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.18per pick | 30cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…6d20backed No | 14c | 87.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…3129backed No | 12c | 86.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c5…b081backed No | 14c | 70$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3879…0df4backed Yes | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3683…68dbbacked No | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea03…0aa1backed Yes | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf133…9964backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x126d…f863backed Yes | 71c | 35.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…37e6backed Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe85d…f470backed Yes | 78c | 19.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.