AI · resolved market
Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46901f36cfc520897f7c0a6d416fba4a7b8bc01a76d0d2af97944ebfbbdae19f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,040
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,040 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed No | 2c | 7,522$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.28 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 23c | 1,268$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.86 | 257 | 31.5%81 W · 176 L | -14.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 3c | 1,171$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 54 | 20.4%11 W · 43 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ca7…6149backed Yes | 77c | 1,000$765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 78c | 1,000$779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.89 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Yes | 78c | 557.69$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.69 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed No | 4c | 401.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8676…79abbacked No | 3c | 323.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 7c | 317.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8009…b46cbacked No | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes | 77c | 242.27$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.27 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 35cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 14c | 211.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 149.09$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f90…fb00backed Yes | 77c | 140$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c27…1555backed Yes | 77c | 135.71$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.2wins | +0.15per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…f5cdbacked Yes | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 100.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f0…6c5dbacked Yes | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…6d20backed Yes | 78c | 97.94$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5943…56c3backed Yes | 77c | 71.43$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x386e…3857backed Yes | 76c | 65$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31eb…bea0backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22df…ed56backed Yes | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf936…b6c1backed Yes | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 16c | 64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 288 | 28.5%82 W · 206 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 24c | 60$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7573…ab5fbacked Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeec…aa69backed Yes | 77c | 24.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google have the top AI model on September 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on September 30?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.