TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$561,947
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$473,772

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $561,947 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 566 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e37…1e69backed Yes36c38,582$13,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,727.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes19c29,736$5,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,538.886328.6%18 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked No78c20,389$15,974 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,4155554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed Yes15c14,097$2,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,109.136716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes29c13,931$4,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,055.863411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed Yes13c13,884$1,748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,748.093231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa469…e73fbacked Yes4c11,034$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-75.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes23c10,061$2,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.4319011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5839…260bbacked Yes11c8,814$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$935.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes12c7,837$910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$910.294228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed Yes54c7,029$3,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,789.512725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf44d…60afbacked Yes57c6,932$3,921 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,920.741442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c6,600$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.586291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50fb…89cebacked Yes62c5,263$3,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,244.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes35c5,042$1,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,777.0618323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes15c5,000$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.63742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Yes51c4,910$2,504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,504.09633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c4,496$770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.4440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes50c4,366$2,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,182.951241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No61c3,858$2,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.811442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80f8…7448backed Yes77c3,650$2,826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,826.311435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No51c3,620$1,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,776.5515452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0d1c…7783backed Yes77c3,500$2,695 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,695.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes17c3,122$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.217948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d9…12dfbacked Yes20c2,763$556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.99911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes6c2,622$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.7625837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe738…df65backed Yes62c2,520$1,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,574.733447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Yes38c2,506$964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$964.472055%11 W · 9 L+4.3wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+89.4%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a11…f11abacked Yes59c2,484$1,464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.03757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd00…99c7backed Yes20c2,463$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.12560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+20.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd33e…4d22backed Yes48c2,431$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes13c2,345$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.24216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x749f…9501backed No46c2,260$1,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,213.346232.3%20 W · 42 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick29cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes38c2,168$830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$830.2212839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed No11c2,055$233 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,822.351241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+310.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe1ec…2d0ebacked Yes23c2,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No57c1,883$1,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$801.6147938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes23c1,858$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.07966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+56.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0aae…251cbacked No77c1,823$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.241330.8%4 W · 9 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+181.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No50c1,777$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.779435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes6c1,771$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1111175.1%6 W · 111 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-65.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x68d1…3c4dbacked No48c1,735$831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$904.218150.6%41 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa607…2caebacked Yes10c1,713$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.2280%0 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6976…f99bbacked Yes59c1,704$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dbf…3f35backed Yes60c1,700$1,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,02040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93d1…a451backed Yes5c1,694$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick21cpaid+458.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes6c1,617$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.621,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb27…aec4backed Yes13c1,536$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed No47c1,526$714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811.78757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes39c1,505$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.99041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed No76c1,500$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3552462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed No44c1,423$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$800.4512033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x84ec…998cbacked Yes8c1,408$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.72333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick17cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc45…6805backed Yes47c1,381$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$646.064226.2%11 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes47c1,345$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$636.454918.4%9 W · 40 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-21.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac95…df88backed Yes59c1,335$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788.47977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+35%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes53c1,320$696 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695.731936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2353…c73dbacked Yes47c1,316$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.92366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick65cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c1,308$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.412522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes21c1,306$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.556010%6 W · 54 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-72.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Yes62c1,299$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8001250%6 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-32.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x96e9…4b32backed No76c1,283$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.44748.9%23 W · 24 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-17.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes64c1,275$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$810.114360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2025…129ebacked No45c1,266$571 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick42cpaid+137.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed No67c1,225$826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.646123%14 W · 47 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No68c1,223$835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.439850%49 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6a68…9559backed Yes23c1,118$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked No77c1,111$855 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.532657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes4c1,096$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.22792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed64…7c2ebacked Yes4c1,078$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.99110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eae…558abacked No31c1,067$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+314.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes51c1,057$543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.261637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0af5…2470backed Yes62c1,045$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-28.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No54c1,024$551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$473.248837.5%33 W · 55 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-24.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1916…b8edbacked Yes65c1,000$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6501241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid+37.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x49a7…8ff2backed Yes20c995.92$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83b…dfbebacked Yes21c985.27$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.623040%12 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+44.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2375…691fbacked Yes2c978$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.991428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes2c976.87$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No79c950.06$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.523627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x916b…b154backed Yes61c948.98$575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$575333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-55.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes3c929.13$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.444814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x830f…3e9ebacked Yes22c909.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-53.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff92…d07cbacked Yes20c889.93$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5450%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e55…07acbacked Yes59c885.48$522 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.731225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x385f…a21fbacked No34c873.58$297 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.592365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x25a1…67b0backed Yes29c865.33$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.37742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-24.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf25…be9ebacked Yes26c862.55$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.732218.2%4 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+64.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes30c853$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.5319040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf614…689abacked Yes59c846.58$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick30cpaid-60.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c29…0b7cbacked No19c843.1$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$686.1911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-40.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82ed…b788backed Yes8c837$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89d0…03c1backed Yes32c829.04$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$268.2130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No27c828.14$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.1218311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b3b…2a3ebacked Yes53c825.03$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d0b…f2b7backed No60c821.93$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd08f…9ecfbacked Yes41c818.99$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.7950%0 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed No38c800$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4961435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x659d…a037backed No10c779.13$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$698.34613%6 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef8c…a80abacked Yes54c748.52$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.1120%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.