AI · resolved market
Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93692cae1ab7ceff885b3fbff6d763d551a7632c725e6552a612da74033fd43c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $303,476
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $189,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $303,476 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 29,999$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.74 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 20,353$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659d…a037backed Yes | 1c | 14,608$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.2 | 46 | 13%6 W · 40 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 1c | 9,942$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 1c | 8,634$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 1c | 8,128$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.89 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 11cpaid | +92.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 7,669$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2b…bc61backed Yes | 1c | 5,838$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf72…fe91backed Yes | 1c | 5,700$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7b…782fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,017$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 18cpaid | -91.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7024…4c4cbacked Yes | 0c | 4,965$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,783$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbef…7de2backed Yes | 1c | 4,394$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.96 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…834abacked Yes | 1c | 4,060$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 3,980$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5959…8d1abacked Yes | 1c | 3,736$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd130…02a3backed Yes | 1c | 3,661$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4177…bbe4backed Yes | 1c | 3,643$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.86 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +145.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked Yes | 0c | 3,590$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…aec4backed Yes | 2c | 3,547$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x037b…47f4backed Yes | 1c | 3,196$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e4…28aabacked Yes | 1c | 3,077$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 3,049$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb4…f28cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,932$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes | 0c | 2,669$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ae…4cf1backed Yes | 1c | 2,458$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 53 | 1.9%1 W · 52 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…d410backed Yes | 3c | 2,444$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +89.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 1c | 2,256$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbc…3533backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 23 | 0%0 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 1c | 1,878$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4706…286ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,871$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 71 | 2.8%2 W · 69 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48d2…c177backed Yes | 1c | 1,860$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6205…6778backed Yes | 1c | 1,606$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes | 1c | 1,166$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc3…b579backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 3c | 978.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f8…7448backed Yes | 2c | 810.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd826…c1adbacked Yes | 2c | 583.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5235…c04abacked Yes | 3c | 582.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 34 | 11.8%4 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -79%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed Yes | 2c | 560.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 2c | 550.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…a21fbacked Yes | 4c | 474.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…1d86backed Yes | 4c | 463.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 19cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8f…1cb8backed Yes | 4c | 345.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Yes won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.