TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$575,493
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$600,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $575,493 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 408 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0ee4…276fbacked Yes74c28,056$20,784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,271.921241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes73c20,374$14,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,422.155554.5%30 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7365…64dabacked Yes63c14,089$8,870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,218.7927536.4%100 W · 175 L+7.7wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes42c10,634$4,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,147.12966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+56.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes64c10,189$6,547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,641.638150.6%41 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed No16c8,516$1,330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,330.264228.6%12 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick33cpaid-32.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6590…3a26backed No0c8,500$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13580%0 W · 58 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe278…b608backed Yes66c7,363$4,865 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,497.65633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-48.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x00e1…b679backed No57c5,457$3,084 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,083.882725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b46…78bdbacked Yes23c5,444$1,232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,212.552821.4%6 W · 22 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick35cpaid-53%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes37c5,405$1,981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,423.693411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes38c5,000$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,119.97825%2 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-46.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67d6…245ebacked Yes74c4,997$3,679 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.44742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30aa…2bddbacked Yes36c4,900$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,155.39922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick33cpaid-50.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No27c4,829$1,291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,290.664325.6%11 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-52.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc326…1db1backed Yes73c4,324$3,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,169.2125837.6%97 W · 161 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed No1c4,300$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.046291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Yes75c4,295$3,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.051100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7f…a878backed Yes6c3,960$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,718.851241.7%5 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick22cpaid+310.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac95…df88backed Yes78c3,901$3,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.71977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.18per pick59cpaid+35%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes70c3,660$2,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,081.4918323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No38c3,649$1,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.919435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked No23c3,336$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$756.8619011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0f7…8c8bbacked Yes46c3,253$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,752.92650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa1d7…2b75backed No6c3,246$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef8c…a80abacked No62c3,232$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No9c3,178$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.981175.1%6 W · 111 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick11cpaid-65.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc45…6805backed Yes60c3,100$1,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,252.724226.2%11 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf32a…06fdbacked No1c3,006$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed No26c2,964$767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.6440712.3%50 W · 357 L-35.7wins-0.09per pick21cpaid-48.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb3db…eb1bbacked No62c2,907$1,814 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,814.1520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes6c2,883$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,718.942674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes15c2,645$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,237.0212033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbeb9…3870backed Yes77c2,497$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.657948.1%38 W · 41 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe6b0…ce9ebacked Yes40c2,445$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.71933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick23cpaid-14.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x125d…b5b7backed Yes39c2,344$905 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,438.55450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-4%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No42c2,187$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.0115452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc451…2609backed Yes10c2,074$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,868.032466.7%16 W · 8 L+4.4wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+60.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x37b4…d5e5backed No41c2,066$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.813231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick25cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x564f…7034backed Yes70c2,025$1,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.444216.7%7 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-38.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0adf…8718backed Yes41c2,023$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,198.121136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick20cpaid-2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb3ff…c98fbacked No23c1,878$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.73250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-33.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6769…1d22backed Yes5c1,848$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,748.071520%3 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+220.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked Yes76c1,800$1,369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4314729.8%14 W · 33 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-53.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes5c1,781$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,683.531323.1%3 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.12per pick11cpaid+92.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed Yes75c1,669$1,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.84714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-81%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No26c1,645$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430.923627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-39.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes77c1,632$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.3619040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x38a4…4ef2backed No3c1,622$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.934814.6%7 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick9cpaid-14.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked No31c1,600$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.24641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x659d…a037backed Yes6c1,579$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,485.924613%6 W · 40 L-0.2wins0.00per pick14cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa271…2727backed No1c1,530$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.44290%0 W · 29 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x385f…a21fbacked Yes72c1,529$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.032365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No4c1,495$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.732522%5 W · 247 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes5c1,482$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,414.259041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes44c1,468$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.156328.6%18 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No13c1,460$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.886716.4%11 W · 56 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-51.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c57…d410backed Yes9c1,423$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,298.38616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+89.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb120…f2ffbacked Yes44c1,406$622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$783.199940.4%40 W · 59 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-22%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e55…07acbacked Yes12c1,357$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,195.471225%3 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes25c1,351$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,018.8547938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5365…71fcbacked Yes8c1,276$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid+216.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No2c1,236$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.762110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb9…74bfbacked Yes75c1,231$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.081172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93d1…a451backed Yes7c1,210$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.26366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick21cpaid+458.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x065c…7c38backed Yes41c1,209$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$709.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+141.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x641b…5433backed Yes64c1,200$772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.48966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+41.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes46c1,191$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.961637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick50cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes69c1,184$813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$371.351442.9%6 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.10per pick33cpaid-24.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a28…929fbacked Yes56c1,151$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.81887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick55cpaid+74.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7687…1041backed Yes7c1,142$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.27520%1 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick6cpaid+204.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x011b…e44dbacked Yes73c1,111$811 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.972657.7%15 W · 11 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed No5c1,108$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.892792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ac3…16f6backed Yes80c1,100$878 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.2944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8976…8104backed Yes14c1,076$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$926.35333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick13cpaid+139.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80f8…7448backed Yes25c1,074$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$809.341435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58fa…5a5abacked Yes11c1,065$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$944.93633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+82.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d9f…9790backed Yes47c1,000$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$534.15683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick58cpaid+52.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed Yes12c999.98$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$879.981435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+13.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No13c978.61$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.091,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e32…8a33backed Yes62c971.76$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.171735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-43.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd45…59b2backed No2c954.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.212339.1%9 W · 14 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick30cpaid-9.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3d7…45f2backed No2c949.97$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3244.2%1 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-86.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4144…b82abacked Yes38c928.81$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$578.81540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked No4c922.87$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.5724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes72c891.68$641 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.484360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x564f…7026backed Yes60c846.35$504 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.1736945.3%167 W · 202 L+29.3wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+22.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x06e8…4675backed Yes57c833.4$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$355.45757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked Yes69c819.41$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.211936.8%7 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-35.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No27c817.4$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.3820148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No26c802.17$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.371776.5%13 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.36per pick41cpaid+90.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed No4c800$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfa…5ca6backed Yes4c799.99$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.991100%1 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.96per pick4cpaid+2,757.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2aa1…dba8backed Yes75c751.71$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.74728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-62.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b74…e8d7backed Yes72c750$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.052462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23ad…5306backed Yes5c748.72$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+462%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x366c…8184backed No27c746.88$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes41c744.79$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$442.845735.1%20 W · 37 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No47c719.7$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.457426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Yes78c699.7$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.391464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick46cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.