Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x290f7deb1ea1c2187abf147c0333fd405b32265f2b99efbbd5666bcf8b8f1acc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $255,557
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $265,512
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,557 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda2…c714backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 0c | 44,999$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd783…ec1ebacked No | 0c | 27,849$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4a7…4062backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…c2e9backed No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe93f…3f7fbacked No | 0c | 7,951$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd91…b75cbacked No | 0c | 7,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9437…6c5dbacked No | 13c | 6,663$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$866.86 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701e…9918backed No | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d0…a970backed No | 66c | 2,413$1,581 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,581.07 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4272…dedcbacked No | 4c | 2,115$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…3005backed Yes | 33c | 2,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.98 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed No | 4c | 1,430$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 54c | 1,359$737 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.62 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 1,198$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 73c | 1,110$815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.19 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 63c | 1,035$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.53 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…9562backed No | 67c | 999.97$671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$670.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 80c | 742.57$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$592.02 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 32c | 655.7$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.08 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x711c…8495backed Yes | 38c | 625.03$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.03 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0518…5da2backed No | 67c | 614.27$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.56 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes | 37c | 541.51$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$341.51 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed No | 7c | 535.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7214…433bbacked Yes | 31c | 532.06$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.12 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 73c | 500$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7272…a67dbacked Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.99 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d73…bae7backed No | 77c | 499.98$385 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 14c | 425.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.36 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 67c | 422.31$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.67 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe88…90f5backed Yes | 74c | 402.7$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.7 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2f…24debacked Yes | 29c | 400$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 34c | 394.96$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.91 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb71c…dd68backed No | 79c | 381.14$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 46c | 375.99$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.15 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea41…1c98backed Yes | 33c | 333$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.11 | 333 | 37.5%125 W · 208 L | +12.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa2…453ebacked Yes | 25c | 318.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.26 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b1…a2c8backed Yes | 32c | 313.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked No | 62c | 300$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef40…d88bbacked No | 67c | 298.51$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…ac3bbacked Yes | 34c | 288.78$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.56 | 270 | 47.8%129 W · 141 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 8c | 262.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e73…6697backed Yes | 35c | 234$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.1 | 196 | 39.8%78 W · 118 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 22c | 225$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.5 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 16c | 218.68$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 317 | 19.2%61 W · 256 L | -23.1wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -41%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf53d…9f2cbacked Yes | 48c | 201.39$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.21 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 66cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed No | 75c | 200.73$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 222 | 62.2%138 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf59f…3be9backed No | 59c | 200$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 157 | 43.9%69 W · 88 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 27c | 199.98$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.98 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…50e2backed Yes | 19c | 184.21$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 40c | 180$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x719b…c995backed No | 76c | 164.16$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.1 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 58cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked No | 24c | 149.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.7 | 38 | 71.1%27 W · 11 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b48…35d0backed No | 14c | 136.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a88…fd7fbacked No | 74c | 134.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfad1…9fd1backed Yes | 23c | 133.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +594.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84fd…2f81backed No | 65c | 132$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.8 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 9c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.45 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfba0…58d6backed Yes | 24c | 126.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +321%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked No | 43c | 124.01$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 80c | 122.87$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 68c | 119.25$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.6 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked Yes | 74c | 117.35$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.48 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +67%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf225…f863backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.29 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +124.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 78c | 107.69$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.69 | 57 | 61.4%35 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 48c | 106.33$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.33 | 272 | 33.8%92 W · 180 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b5…cf5fbacked Yes | 50c | 100.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.77 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6590…ad78backed Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 85 | 29.4%25 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked No | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c1…0cd6backed No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb261…019fbacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019a…7df0backed No | 26c | 99.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37ef…a37abacked No | 65c | 98.62$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.8 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c9…2e25backed No | 67c | 94.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4775…c57dbacked Yes | 30c | 93.88$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.78per pick | 22cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed No | 74c | 89.62$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 896 | 17.1%153 W · 743 L | -57.2wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe22…b709backed Yes | 34c | 87.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +258.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3719…f9edbacked Yes | 31c | 81.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked No | 58c | 78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.94 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b6…2f9fbacked No | 73c | 73.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.01 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda3…bdbebacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +67.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a7…4fdfbacked No | 72c | 70$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.8wins | -0.43per pick | 65cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 72c | 69.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4cb…f2f6backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +684.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 25c | 66.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 31c | 66.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.61 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc75…b64dbacked No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c9…1078backed Yes | 34c | 59.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe91…509ebacked Yes | 34c | 59.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.59 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a25…6d20backed Yes | 34c | 59.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.57 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 25c | 58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.5 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +116.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb77…c12ebacked No | 76c | 57.64$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9272…0a19backed Yes | 59c | 57$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…05f7backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 71 | 47.9%34 W · 37 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?this page
- Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.