Middle East · resolved market
Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x66010f724a2a6a718dc3ea96d2afe5f0a61cdf5b46f3fc68b4fcd411c9de091a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $615,175
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $603,709
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $615,175 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 342 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed No | 3c | 52,241$1,328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,328.2 | 58 | 27.6%16 W · 42 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 23c | 15,277$3,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,756.45 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 51c | 14,507$7,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,113.71 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xe103…59fdbacked No | 63c | 11,056$6,915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,914.59 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…f2a8backed No | 0c | 11,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 62c | 9,220$5,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,711.3 | 408 | 28.9%118 W · 290 L | -29.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 36c | 9,217$3,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,286.81 | 162 | 46.3%75 W · 87 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked No | 19c | 8,997$1,752 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,751.84 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb32…db85backed Yes | 14c | 6,437$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,505.78 | 344 | 40.4%139 W · 205 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 60c | 6,141$3,712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,712.42 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd1…0c4fbacked No | 16c | 6,076$993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$992.67 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fec…c965backed No | 11c | 5,426$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590.21 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb72c…653ebacked No | 17c | 5,013$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.65 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc5…06d5backed Yes | 41c | 4,938$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,937.87 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…abd4backed No | 4c | 4,832$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.17 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7498…60adbacked Yes | 46c | 4,586$2,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,476.9 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked No | 48c | 4,353$2,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,071.28 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7131…29ccbacked No | 10c | 4,266$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.02 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked No | 9c | 4,009$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.5 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad0…bf3dbacked No | 4c | 3,900$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.3 | 183 | 38.3%70 W · 113 L | +14.5wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x687e…22d4backed No | 6c | 3,811$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfffd…e585backed No | 50c | 3,792$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +45.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd34b…3acbbacked Yes | 55c | 3,622$1,996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,625.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f89…d6febacked Yes | 40c | 3,544$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,130.47 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x245c…2486backed Yes | 53c | 3,530$1,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,659.88 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 72c | 3,415$2,472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.81 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 4c | 3,019$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.36 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56db…171cbacked No | 4c | 2,857$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 19cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5df…2f2dbacked No | 54c | 2,763$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…27dfbacked No | 3c | 2,632$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed No | 16c | 2,450$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.89 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadf9…cdc6backed No | 16c | 2,385$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.04 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 16c | 2,292$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,914.95 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe27d…8e12backed Yes | 44c | 2,235$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,251.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 39c | 2,134$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,308.98 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 14c | 2,117$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,816.69 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…9ea8backed No | 5c | 2,089$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.68 | 24 | 0%0 W · 24 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 52c | 2,000$1,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.06 | 344 | 32.3%111 W · 233 L | -31.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8e03…d5ecbacked No | 5c | 1,999$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8597…daeebacked No | 48c | 1,988$959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.1 | 83 | 59%49 W · 34 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 27c | 1,964$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.4 | 473 | 34%161 W · 312 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bb3…2682backed Yes | 57c | 1,958$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.33 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…5f30backed No | 5c | 1,867$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe14f…c1a0backed No | 3c | 1,862$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.58 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed No | 79c | 1,853$1,457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,456.98 | 99 | 55.6%55 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…89edbacked No | 26c | 1,800$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.26 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +67%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76be…6718backed Yes | 35c | 1,790$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.17 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18b9…a226backed No | 8c | 1,728$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.55 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff7c…b233backed No | 2c | 1,678$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 306 | 35.9%110 W · 196 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0db7…c901backed Yes | 57c | 1,665$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.88 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa224…3769backed No | 61c | 1,662$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.44 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84dd…8701backed Yes | 38c | 1,650$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,019.79 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d5…caf8backed Yes | 59c | 1,614$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffb0…fa37backed No | 39c | 1,597$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.57 | 160 | 61.9%99 W · 61 L | +9.8wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 4c | 1,571$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.92 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed No | 59c | 1,557$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.51 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6adc…2617backed No | 1c | 1,546$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 43c | 1,538$665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$664.65 | 81 | 43.2%35 W · 46 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed No | 3c | 1,508$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b64…49bdbacked No | 68c | 1,358$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.88 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 6c | 1,354$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5049…6092backed No | 41c | 1,326$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$545.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -35%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…0d1bbacked No | 6c | 1,284$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf363…83d0backed No | 34c | 1,283$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked No | 53c | 1,277$676 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$675.98 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7996…01acbacked No | 5c | 1,254$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe860…c3d2backed Yes | 36c | 1,241$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795.27 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82b1…7579backed Yes | 40c | 1,205$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.88 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 31c | 1,198$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.89 | 264 | 23.9%63 W · 201 L | -9.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9656…e5afbacked Yes | 8c | 1,188$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +263.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 11c | 1,188$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,062.69 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd383…c77abacked Yes | 44c | 1,183$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.35 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecab…cc7cbacked No | 3c | 1,162$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0275…b936backed No | 9c | 1,157$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.02 | 121 | 14%17 W · 104 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc629…aa40backed Yes | 43c | 1,100$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.64 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5372…4b1fbacked No | 64c | 1,070$681 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…c8cfbacked Yes | 12c | 1,066$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$934.19 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +83.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked Yes | 68c | 1,052$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.72 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 39c | 1,036$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$634.66 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…4daebacked Yes | 30c | 1,001$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.35 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 64c | 999.99$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640.19 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Yes | 80c | 999.99$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.5 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8733…a6f0backed Yes | 80c | 960.75$767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked No | 63c | 960$605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$604.6 | 458 | 43.7%200 W · 258 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 4c | 949.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 337 | 41.2%139 W · 198 L | +11.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e11…8024backed No | 35c | 943.6$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa2…453ebacked Yes | 8c | 936.23$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.72 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +135.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7b…75ecbacked No | 13c | 936.07$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc417…3ca6backed Yes | 60c | 927.59$554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.14 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0441…8a27backed No | 3c | 910.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 14c | 909.3$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.31 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe809…039bbacked No | 56c | 879.6$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.17 | 168 | 32.1%54 W · 114 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0620…8c8dbacked No | 38c | 839.66$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80ea…f25fbacked Yes | 42c | 836.92$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.92 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30b…31c2backed No | 2c | 822.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeec5…b6febacked No | 44c | 820.5$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.61 | 123 | 62.6%77 W · 46 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc254…3f73backed Yes | 51c | 814$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.63 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.7wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed No | 6c | 809$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | +11.5wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 62c | 793.86$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.3 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73f8…7df9backed No | 6c | 791.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Israel strikes Gaza by October 17?this page
- Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.