TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Earnings · resolved market

Will Starbucks (SBUX) beat quarterly earnings?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,098
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,580

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,098 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Earnings
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x943b…fe84backed No73c782.79$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.98955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-21.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes28c619.61$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5876137.6%286 W · 475 L+35.5wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb1a1…dd34backed No64c543.13$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.415564.5%100 W · 55 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes49c539.99$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.2533025.2%83 W · 247 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc09…9024backed No46c421.59$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.444866.7%32 W · 16 L+5.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+28%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1c56…0b1dbacked Yes3c386.97$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0130%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes40c325$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+39.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes56c300$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16867442.7%288 W · 386 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe413…32d3backed Yes34c294.57$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5400…1342backed No72c293.04$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.731154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+41.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc7a7…9f02backed No72c279.64$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.642665.4%17 W · 9 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe382…f187backed No72c276.29$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.29333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-54%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0509…6e98backed Yes40c256.18$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.0220331.5%64 W · 139 L-14.1wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4be5…c1b3backed No73c244.02$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.811855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4f4…bf68backed Yes47c212.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004845.8%22 W · 26 L-8.2wins-0.17per pick63cpaid-23.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes43c199.99$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.9920729.5%61 W · 146 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-20%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0f…4f31backed No51c190$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7535635.1%125 W · 231 L+17.1wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+20.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9401…471abacked No56c179.6$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-64.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fe7…dbd6backed Yes28c178.32$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.5530315.2%46 W · 257 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b91…2709backed Yes32c177.29$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.228267.1%55 W · 27 L+11.7wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+18.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe860…cdaabacked Yes33c173.82$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick61cpaid-56%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes34c164.48$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.921822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick30cpaid-50.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x64d7…4d00backed Yes61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10021357.3%122 W · 91 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x11b0…6a8ebacked No65c153.67$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.78333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-48.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1406…401abacked No74c153.58$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.78450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Yes33c150.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xafd1…8f9cbacked No68c146.75$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.75560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa27d…13fbbacked No70c142.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.68560%3 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+89.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes29c140.55$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0546314.3%66 W · 397 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e0…75b7backed No74c134.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x720e…17b0backed No75c132.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.58560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick57cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb50…7bfcbacked Yes28c131.53$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.236914.5%10 W · 59 L-8.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-62%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xeaa6…0a65backed Yes25c124$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.463321.2%7 W · 26 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c2e…1028backed Yes42c119.05$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbee7…dc3abacked No77c106.06$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.391942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38fc…33e2backed No68c105$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.51742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30c3…1331backed Yes38c100$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.74524.4%11 W · 34 L-3.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-27.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xef10…97edbacked Yes23c99.98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4156…dcd6backed Yes44c99.95$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.982263.6%14 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.07per pick71cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f51…2019backed Yes31c94.44$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.917441.4%72 W · 102 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4670…5f1cbacked No56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.294459.1%26 W · 18 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick65cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa5f1…790bbacked Yes46c87.48$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.994139%16 W · 25 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7fe…1e42backed No66c86$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.646040%24 W · 36 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+39.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x58c0…1c8ebacked No58c85$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.721861%133 W · 85 L+11.0wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+15.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xefbf…79f6backed No74c84$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.191573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.5wins+0.17per pick57cpaid+26%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xed77…d9d0backed Yes48c80$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No66c79.56$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.113053.3%16 W · 14 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes25c74.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.5111032.7%36 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4ba…c5d8backed No59c68.39$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No64c68.17$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.5129024.1%70 W · 220 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a25…6d20backed No59c67.8$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35ab…5a73backed Yes30c67.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Yes46c63.51$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.3120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8267…6dd5backed No70c61.77$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.53955.6%5 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.16per pick72cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb68f…613fbacked Yes32c60$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.23834.2%13 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+36.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe0ee…b7f8backed Yes28c60$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fdc…5d91backed Yes35c57.14$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209960.6%60 W · 39 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x211f…8e0fbacked No72c55.68$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.687358.9%43 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes50c55$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.354346.5%20 W · 23 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-25.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd607…838bbacked Yes46c50.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.35540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.54266.7%28 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes36c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1831229.8%93 W · 219 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed No67c50$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.54040%16 W · 24 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+46.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3997…dd0fbacked No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.52045%9 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x583b…9249backed No71c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.5683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick66cpaid+21.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c06…62e3backed Yes52c50$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+149.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3234…9e89backed No72c41.67$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.672100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2dc…223ebacked Yes40c40.81$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.133844.7%17 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c31…4c6cbacked No74c40.63$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.63250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3693…c9afbacked Yes50c40.4$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe381…3ba9backed Yes29c40$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.525125.5%64 W · 187 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbae7…80fcbacked No61c39.86$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.743938.5%15 W · 24 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a77…9a37backed Yes52c38.46$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick71cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4575…9628backed Yes40c38.38$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.431931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick42cpaid-31.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked No66c38$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbe9…17acbacked Yes37c37.74$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.125536.4%20 W · 35 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5fba…a63cbacked Yes54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b97…36b7backed No55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.368772.4%63 W · 24 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e0e…4419backed No58c35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.718751.3%96 W · 91 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0018…af64backed No62c32.5$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+101.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa195…24fcbacked Yes42c31.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.262835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-20.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca2d…3236backed Yes40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc573…cdacbacked No67c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.91666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab0a…36b1backed No72c27.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.78250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e96…a7e0backed No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x328e…db69backed No76c26.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.232100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+44%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa47e…54a2backed Yes63c25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick72cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21c5…3533backed No76c24.57$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.91580%12 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick77cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes62c22$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.644211.9%5 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.15per pick26cpaid-47.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x414b…f2b3backed No73c20.46$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.46757.1%4 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick74cpaid-24.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6930…c231backed No56c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.75475%3 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+12.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682e…5e6cbacked No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba64…048abacked No73c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5ed…7399backed No70c15.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c7b…d463backed No72c14.98$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.2366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.