TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x35ab…5a73

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
12
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 57 out of 100; worst Crypto Milestones at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT1450%7 W · 7 L+2.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+511.1%+$127.78
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will André Ventura win the 1st round of the 2026 Portugal presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+60.2%+$6.7
Will Kast win by 10% to 15%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Kast win by 15% to 20%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+170.9%+$68.34
Will Kast win by 5% to 10%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will José Antonio Kast win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+40.8%+$18.59
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$1,361Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+197.9%+$2,694.28
Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$59Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+108.3%+$63.85
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$28.8
Park Sung-jae in jail by November 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+69.5%+$13.9
All 14 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST1442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown Saturday?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Epstein blackmail evidence released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$123Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+38%+$46.75
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+36.9%+$22.17
Will Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$94.69
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Argentina"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.33
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+86.2%+$12.28
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$132Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$131.63
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 24, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+27.2%+$10.71
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,180Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$1,180.11
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST-100%-$49.17
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$33.91
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST+88.7%+$17.74
Will Trump sign the Epstein Disclosure Bill on November 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+51.5%+$10.3
All 14 picks, newest first.
Earnings Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Earnings — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Earnings, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2026, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick46cpaid+56.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Tweets — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.36per pick56cpaid-33.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 30, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-50.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+22.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+106.3%+$120.56
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$15
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17
Maduro out by November 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$33.11
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.