TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,602,204
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,831,720

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,602,204 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 974 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcfb5…7d2dbacked No1c61,437$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4101553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.10per pick43cpaid-9.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c03…40edbacked No23c48,577$11,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,172.71333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d8…6466backed Yes77c48,577$37,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,172.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed No39c31,807$12,553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,552.681915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.8wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-57.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b4…64edbacked No0c26,121$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.96170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8147…4fbfbacked Yes60c24,000$14,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,600425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed No0c23,395$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.48640.7%35 W · 51 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No0c20,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4012129.8%36 W · 85 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed No7c16,065$1,082 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.134221.4%9 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-66.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e63…c9ebbacked Yes60c14,566$8,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,877.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+67.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafbe…8205backed Yes64c13,988$8,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,089.952100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+76.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e9f…91dbbacked Yes67c12,970$8,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,265.121241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick35cpaid-2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1420…9daabacked No31c12,356$3,873 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,872.83650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+14%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7447…a16dbacked No46c11,889$5,457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,456.692142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-22%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c9…afe7backed No31c10,948$3,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,427.151942.1%8 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10ac…d4bcbacked Yes46c10,852$4,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,888.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+118.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde5d…6feabacked No1c10,300$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ef3…adefbacked Yes59c10,133$5,978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,154.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xafa3…71fdbacked No2c9,430$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a38…8b70backed Yes79c9,413$7,453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.67475%3 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b1f…4a07backed Yes60c9,224$5,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,672.362100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+233.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x27f7…ff6bbacked Yes68c7,570$5,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,415.56366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98b8…032dbacked Yes74c7,494$5,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,953.871100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x963c…e437backed No1c7,108$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6a…c4c7backed No1c7,082$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c6,300$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.94440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe487…aca6backed Yes66c6,227$4,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,116.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No15c5,819$882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$881.621,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc741…5252backed Yes73c5,542$4,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,520.52580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+24.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0408…061dbacked No25c5,490$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,349.08650%3 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+319.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x536d…4b67backed Yes73c5,300$3,869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.99850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-18.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb15a…a1c5backed No42c5,217$2,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,206.34742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+59.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Yes61c4,755$2,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.334623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No26c4,729$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.2712345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8aff…f16abacked Yes75c4,578$3,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,165.323100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb74b…f6b7backed No15c4,575$697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$697.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-47.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48d2…7961backed Yes69c4,370$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.561752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked No26c4,257$1,118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.3316612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf66c…4ab1backed No1c4,159$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.763116.1%5 W · 26 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No1c4,144$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.641,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89fb…fdfabacked Yes70c4,005$2,799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,205.541650%8 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-22.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47f5…934dbacked No2c3,869$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.837420.3%15 W · 59 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick16cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c3,811$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.726883.6%25 W · 663 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-59.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x387c…9188backed Yes68c3,795$2,595 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,199.98944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-37.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes68c3,618$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,145.676250%31 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x7b83…3589backed Yes68c3,531$2,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,138.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xedc2…ad9fbacked No54c3,500$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,889.972321.7%5 W · 18 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick33cpaid-49.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x629c…6c01backed No40c3,352$1,347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,346.542326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+21.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b45…5bf6backed No1c3,300$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes65c3,155$2,055 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.3317037.6%64 W · 106 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No19c2,943$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.275223.1%12 W · 40 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-30.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes75c2,849$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.1531534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf2…a469backed Yes67c2,744$1,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.553630.6%11 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-30.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x927b…f13dbacked No33c2,517$831 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$831.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31eb…3616backed No40c2,390$958 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$957.83450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x340b…ec07backed Yes74c2,360$1,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.21955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No20c2,347$473 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$472.5637117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked No29c2,298$669 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$668.826536.9%24 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-19.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes48c2,279$1,093 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,186.629053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes74c2,273$1,692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick54cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2a8…8466backed Yes53c2,247$1,197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,049.631833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick26cpaid+100.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45e…605fbacked Yes73c2,220$1,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$606.22050%10 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdcaf…9916backed Yes79c2,171$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$454.34560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x457a…44debacked No27c2,154$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$581.572334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid+33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a58…9a5ebacked Yes54c2,064$1,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$945650%3 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7edc…a3d3backed No5c2,046$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8214…3587backed No1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick22cpaid+36.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54db…0174backed No36c2,000$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71019623%45 W · 151 L+6.4wins+0.03per pick20cpaid-24.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fb…3e4abacked Yes56c1,960$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$862.341931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf9aa…bb40backed No28c1,874$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.841241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked No37c1,817$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.9530233.8%102 W · 200 L+19.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+27.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x207d…fb1bbacked Yes72c1,813$1,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+34.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa946…517abacked Yes75c1,768$1,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$440.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…5205backed No29c1,716$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.9510533.3%35 W · 70 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-13.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1af…701ebacked Yes60c1,680$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6801266.7%8 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.27per pick39cpaid+116.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x28ca…5d19backed Yes71c1,673$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$491.127631.6%24 W · 52 L-4.7wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-27%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcce5…bdafbacked Yes73c1,660$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.17250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-31.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f0a…f7aabacked Yes79c1,589$1,256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$333.2818530.3%56 W · 129 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-50.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes77c1,546$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.492147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7bf7…9e9abacked Yes73c1,541$1,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x629b…995abacked No32c1,530$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.6943243.1%186 W · 246 L+29.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x66df…9811backed Yes57c1,522$872 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$649.78540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x65a5…f5b7backed No4c1,518$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.713221.9%7 W · 25 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick13cpaid+622.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb0f…559abacked Yes66c1,512$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f3b…1d77backed No23c1,460$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.455633.9%19 W · 37 L-3.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x133d…3f75backed Yes70c1,436$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$436.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…5fddbacked Yes67c1,420$956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.98475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+67.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd72d…cd15backed Yes71c1,411$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6d…9a95backed Yes79c1,411$1,115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x65d0…ef39backed Yes73c1,406$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.91366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid-8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05fd…50c9backed Yes66c1,390$917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$472.6633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-52.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe383…85a3backed Yes72c1,382$1,001 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No36c1,374$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.24641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc2a3…c3a6backed No30c1,348$404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$404.311010%1 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick28cpaid-76.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6c69…9e30backed Yes63c1,347$850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.114531.1%14 W · 31 L-0.1wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x101e…eaf4backed No27c1,339$363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.81513.3%2 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick22cpaid-62.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3736…b032backed No32c1,311$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.3810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3372…1914backed Yes66c1,267$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$429.174938.8%19 W · 30 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-22.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfed9…2dc6backed Yes74c1,241$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.65450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd92…4e2ebacked Yes80c1,238$988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.49366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+75.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.