World Politics · resolved market
Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2fde77ec7e873ab1d0825880f6dea70d97f1510ec6184b886e55511e3f127a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,324,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $411,020
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,324,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x231f…0f03backed Yes | 0c | 127,551$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2b…b9abbacked Yes | 0c | 123,440$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…a90abacked Yes | 0c | 112,515$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c66…6b66backed Yes | 0c | 97,679$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.04 | 68 | 4.4%3 W · 65 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +417.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 88,723$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.33 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa6…fa52backed Yes | 0c | 78,577$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82e…114bbacked Yes | 0c | 78,097$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59fd…613fbacked Yes | 0c | 76,717$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb03f…bc94backed Yes | 0c | 76,117$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0385…b97bbacked Yes | 0c | 66,933$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0164…ed7cbacked Yes | 0c | 66,933$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7427…0c05backed Yes | 0c | 66,926$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77aa…a4cfbacked Yes | 0c | 66,926$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3048…e024backed Yes | 0c | 65,293$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef02…4f7ebacked Yes | 0c | 62,836$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.84 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45cd…8b29backed Yes | 0c | 62,684$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9071…c5b3backed Yes | 0c | 54,961$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc852…1a31backed Yes | 0c | 53,437$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…21e6backed Yes | 0c | 50,444$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c6…23a0backed Yes | 0c | 49,570$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaec…279bbacked Yes | 0c | 48,803$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a9…b4d3backed Yes | 0c | 48,670$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ee…18b3backed Yes | 0c | 32,647$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcff0…dc2fbacked Yes | 0c | 32,071$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83ac…2fe4backed Yes | 0c | 23,709$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8225…162fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,024$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…86ccbacked Yes | 0c | 17,268$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 0c | 12,050$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 11,790$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…30b3backed Yes | 0c | 6,159$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cb…9f08backed Yes | 0c | 5,240$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,037$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 452 | 1.1%5 W · 447 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +156.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa142…e120backed Yes | 0c | 3,128$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 3,100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32bc…4ad2backed Yes | 0c | 3,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a31…04dfbacked Yes | 0c | 2,750$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…e9f5backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf3…019abacked Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66eb…03d9backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 1c | 1,993$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 52 | 23.1%12 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af2…6341backed Yes | 1c | 1,908$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 1,854$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23b6…2d69backed Yes | 1c | 1,441$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,186$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed Yes | 1c | 990.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 51 | 9.8%5 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will HNP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?this page
- Will FIT-U win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will LLA win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?Yes won
- Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will UCR win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
- Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.