Earnings · resolved market
Will M&T Bank (MTB) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd1409e299060aedb0fde8cbdc16f8f03986d612ebc8fc9a705d09cd9905a4ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,754
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,619
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,754 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked Yes | 74c | 1,260$935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.86 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3b…e2f5backed No | 3c | 641.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +45%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 20c | 465$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…7690backed No | 14c | 397.9$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.71 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 34c | 381$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.24 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe7…dbd6backed No | 14c | 299.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.1 | 303 | 15.2%46 W · 257 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked No | 22c | 268.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.35 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.15per pick | 26cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77dd…fc49backed No | 19c | 266.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.7wins | +0.31per pick | 14cpaid | +265%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d21…df94backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 31 | 19.4%6 W · 25 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 18c | 199.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa802…23dfbacked No | 18c | 198.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.02 | 108 | 21.3%23 W · 85 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 21c | 152.95$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12dc…5c52backed No | 14c | 145.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +211.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90b9…1951backed No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed No | 34c | 118.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb1…290abacked No | 18c | 111.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 31c | 109.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.09 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75c2…94c0backed No | 21c | 109.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 21c | 102.46$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8310…d990backed No | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e5…2244backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 60 | 8.3%5 W · 55 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cbc…76f6backed No | 29c | 91.57$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 20c | 87.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 216 | 39.4%85 W · 131 L | +8.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…e862backed No | 35c | 85.65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53b4…0139backed Yes | 65c | 79.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb65…3115backed No | 31c | 70.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58f1…7032backed No | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaf…ee69backed Yes | 71c | 68.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f90…1d49backed No | 29c | 68.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e8b…1754backed No | 30c | 63.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35ab…5a73backed Yes | 77c | 52.25$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa195…24fcbacked No | 39c | 51.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 155 | 30.3%47 W · 108 L | -20.2wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 36c | 41.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1919…153cbacked No | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00ae…ae32backed No | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 107 | 21.5%23 W · 84 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | 0%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5bf…d1f4backed Yes | 70c | 34.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…3f02backed Yes | 79c | 33.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…6dd5backed Yes | 75c | 33.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 72cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…74dcbacked Yes | 67c | 29.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211f…8e0fbacked Yes | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 73 | 58.9%43 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3083…f85cbacked Yes | 69c | 21.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f96…a226backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b97…36b7backed Yes | 70c | 14.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 87 | 72.4%63 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.