TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 24, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$53,079
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$50,876

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,079 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes13c9,367$1,199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,198.962653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes7c2,968$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.5919236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes6c2,889$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.05757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa39d…b97fbacked Yes4c1,344$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked Yes43c1,158$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$497.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed No58c1,058$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-19.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed No78c1,009$787 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.024100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+45.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,007$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.721,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes14c979.32$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9231840.3%128 W · 190 L-9.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-26%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2140…5790backed Yes14c729.12$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1022245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58fe…a8c5backed No57c717$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.313100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes18c642.79$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.63013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d17…0e2bbacked Yes42c632$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.44333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-49.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes14c513.43$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.533627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d48…66abbacked No78c513.38$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.38475%3 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick58cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes15c509.95$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.09110%0 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes6c500$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.21343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe27…52b7backed Yes11c500$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes5c495.66$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.64827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe36a…d049backed Yes11c449.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4582…7699backed Yes42c434$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.28250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7019…dcefbacked No75c403.62$301 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.86560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.21per pick39cpaid+64.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes25c376.02$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.58042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf673…be20backed Yes16c373.96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.252250%11 W · 11 L+7.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+303.8%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x3d27…d430backed No76c353.25$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.25450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-20.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4ee8backed Yes39c350.67$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.58425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes31c284.52$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0810630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3e72…7de5backed No57c283$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f14…026ebacked No77c261.33$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.33450%2 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick76cpaid-32.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b5e…61b4backed No78c256.41$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.41366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e9ebbacked Yes9c245.24$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e84…d31cbacked No73c244.87$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.84450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Yes43c234.72$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes7c200$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c200$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes8c200$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5874…6b11backed No61c199$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.962020%4 W · 16 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick28cpaid-66.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes10c198.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6622641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked No58c196$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.322100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1551…2b86backed Yes27c183.46$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes18c179.21$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.3614935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes14c178.5$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.515034%17 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.11per pick23cpaid+73.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c87…e1debacked No77c166.44$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.28666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Yes24c166.02$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77da…0952backed No78c162.15$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes9c158.13$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4644111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd786…857abacked No57c158$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.941100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1b9…5f57backed Yes42c151$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff4b…d019backed No77c139.55$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.734634.8%16 W · 30 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes24c134.97$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.171631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes13c132.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.284926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe26b…bee7backed Yes24c128.24$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.03837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+29.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c5b…a790backed No79c120$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.3475%3 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick75cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb296…ea70backed Yes15c120$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a5…b68dbacked No78c114.04$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes33c103.45$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1333618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked No71c102.28$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.646833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9211…ae7abacked No79c100.49$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7bfe…9ca1backed Yes27c100$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…8880backed Yes26c100$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick32cpaid+248.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1655618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes16c99.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1614528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked Yes14c99.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142138.1%8 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No72c99.98$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc0ff…5e40backed Yes29c98.83$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes24c90.53$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5636527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc052…f8d1backed No74c82.53$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes40c82$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.86038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes39c80$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.212631.7%40 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No57c80$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20d1…0814backed No78c62.82$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.39per pick72cpaid-57.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6664…f53dbacked No77c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3475…eea8backed Yes34c58.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203141.9%13 W · 18 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+31.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ce0…e809backed Yes20c56.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3270%0 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes36c56.01$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No53c53.74$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.54938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bb…4569backed No58c52$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.84250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick35cpaid-13.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35ab…5a73backed No79c50.06$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.711442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-33.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2f2f…a8aabacked Yes42c45$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+41.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x334a…832ebacked Yes42c44$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes25c40.63$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.123056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x704f…ef5dbacked Yes30c40.06$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe944…0837backed Yes37c40.01$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.8955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b01…e639backed No54c37.54$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.271100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88b1…7eb6backed No55c35.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a6e…4767backed No58c34.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x123c…6c30backed Yes45c33.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15425%1 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.83435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes38c29.22$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.084837.5%18 W · 30 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed No57c24.4$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.46530.8%20 W · 45 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x88b8…68c6backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No66c19.15$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.451,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.