TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 26, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,441
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$102,473

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,441 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 95 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa4d7…d21dbacked Yes24c12,209$2,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,930.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes4c5,660$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.8318425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes10c5,630$536 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.312653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x04e8…a0bfbacked Yes18c3,452$604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604.091631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-41.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12c4…8557backed No76c3,392$2,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07aa…b60abacked No76c3,327$2,529 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$798.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe106…4c82backed No76c2,807$2,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$673.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa475…09acbacked No76c2,683$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes3c2,218$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.19827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes7c2,077$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.013013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed No75c2,019$1,514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.0512630.2%38 W · 88 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+105.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,878$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.731,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes3c1,800$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5419236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea66…2903backed Yes5c1,691$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4344…f90dbacked Yes3c1,305$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8318746.5%87 W · 100 L+16.5wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+23.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c1,300$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.51343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b22…c59cbacked Yes4c1,214$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.721338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d11…3d1abacked Yes4c1,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36120%0 W · 12 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dc4…306fbacked Yes19c999.99$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190650%3 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+152.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes2c999.98$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7569634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x184f…a48fbacked Yes30c874$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6578…ba32backed No70c821$575 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.32100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf673…be20backed Yes11c803.65$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.92250%11 W · 11 L+7.3wins+0.33per pick17cpaid+303.8%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c800$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes3c732.68$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.42333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f0…7a91backed Yes15c654.55$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100323.1%1 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick11cpaid-77.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…55a0backed No78c622.92$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.422100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c599.99$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes11c526.87$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9856733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4b29…1f46backed Yes8c516.13$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf30f…a161backed Yes2c500$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.21127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-52%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes3c482.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8110%0 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x234a…cbffbacked Yes30c468$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c04…ac99backed Yes9c440$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.58425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-45.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb214…a6aabacked No70c426$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes5c415.12$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.493813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x75d3…de26backed No77c332.55$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.491080%8 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+10.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes6c300$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.542040%8 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2457…b193backed Yes5c272.75$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15110%0 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe918…d166backed No70c270$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa488…f562backed No70c269$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes5c234.93$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.36220%0 W · 22 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked No71c225.74$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.4619638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1551…2b86backed Yes23c219.57$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No73c219$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3220446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes22c205.91$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.35050%25 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x34cd…9675backed No76c202.28$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.55742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-35.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2707…0afabacked Yes23c201.3$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.3110324.3%25 W · 78 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked Yes6c200$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3723543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x506a…1b43backed Yes30c175$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x326e…c7b9backed Yes30c171$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe944…0837backed Yes18c162.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.31955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5202…7975backed Yes12c161.54$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x91fc…0109backed Yes21c153.38$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.213351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe6e6…8fc2backed No78c149.26$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.84666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ae9…2923backed Yes30c141$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a45…c42dbacked No78c128.21$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.211181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes12c121.28$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147051.4%36 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes25c120$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.66833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4f62…8185backed Yes22c119.99$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.4616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick14cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes10c119.45$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.95757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3517…dab5backed Yes9c112$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes11c109.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1236527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2955618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No76c100$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243650%18 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84b9…8880backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29955.6%5 W · 4 L+2.2wins+0.24per pick32cpaid+248.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.015834.5%20 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed No70c96$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88fa…2cf4backed Yes30c95$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No57c84.99$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.864938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf243…5fb4backed No76c83.33$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes24c83.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes27c79$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.621,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes22c73.03$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8433618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x603e…43febacked No77c64.94$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.94333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-56.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2481…878dbacked No76c60$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4875%6 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes23c60$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.86038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x899c…d868backed No78c50$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa05d…3e96backed No70c45$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xede9…3656backed No76c43.02$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8af8…f239backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8115…dff0backed No79c37.18$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.811100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x724d…da1fbacked No76c36.26$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5328…f631backed No76c35.61$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6585…438abacked No78c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…6764backed No77c30$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.92100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No76c28$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.725853.4%31 W · 27 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid0%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaea2…61e2backed No78c26.63$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x231d…6d97backed No76c23.71$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1221…16d9backed No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf245…1df4backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.63935.9%14 W · 25 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-13.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked No70c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc3bd…2bf8backed No76c16.54$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.97728.6%2 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick28cpaid-54.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.