Us Politics · resolved market

Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 23, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a92f39cf7f9f4e2206de39699b572e3b52740cd4428b800e31a9fb4f94efca2

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Dec 23, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $5,477
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,626

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,477 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe598…a0a8backed Yes	58c	593.48$344 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.42	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	+3.9wins	+0.11per pick	53cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9708backed No	51c	463.51$237 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.74	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-2.0wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6267…b564backed No	9c	223.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No	48c	200$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	696	34.9%243 W · 453 L	-48.8wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes	46c	168.81$77 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.81	41	82.9%34 W · 7 L	+10.5wins	+0.26per pick	57cpaid	+42%equal weight	68+0.16 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed No	9c	137.37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.64	336	18.5%62 W · 274 L	-46.5wins	-0.14per pick	32cpaid	-60%equal weight	36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No	42c	112$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.05	48	37.5%18 W · 30 L	-5.6wins	-0.12per pick	49cpaid	-31.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x84b9…8880backed Yes	50c	100$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+2.2wins	+0.24per pick	32cpaid	+248.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe944…0837backed Yes	53c	89.51$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.24	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	60c	60$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.12	318	40.3%128 W · 190 L	-9.7wins	-0.03per pick	43cpaid	-26%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes	43c	55$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.3	226	41.6%94 W · 132 L	+6.8wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes	50c	50$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25	68	33.8%23 W · 45 L	-4.4wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bb7…411cbacked No	53c	44.81$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	61cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd50f…5708backed No	46c	43.19$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed No	48c	41.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	336	27.4%92 W · 244 L	-7.7wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes	50c	24$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	1,073	35.5%381 W · 692 L	-70.5wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 23, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event