Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x114a17ed50c427484851fa3ab217848ca81a7f95a29b5fa1c4663798764e266c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $292,513
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $288,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $292,513 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee9…6e94backed Yes | 2c | 72,606$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70,937.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.56per pick | 19cpaid | +1,415.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 3c | 26,617$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.89 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5109…5e9cbacked No | 3c | 18,849$628 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$627.91 | 180 | 33.3%60 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc1…3a52backed No | 57c | 17,612$9,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,964.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed No | 1c | 9,559$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.54 | 135 | 56.3%76 W · 59 L | +13.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 30c | 7,419$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,160.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 50c | 4,484$2,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250.94 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ef…8cd6backed Yes | 40c | 4,000$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbae2…05f2backed No | 1c | 3,961$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb436…bb3cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,898$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,897.98 | 41 | 82.9%34 W · 7 L | +10.5wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +42%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked No | 5c | 2,240$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.02 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb773…ec0dbacked No | 1c | 2,025$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x006d…06f8backed No | 5c | 1,600$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4044…8de5backed Yes | 33c | 1,500$488 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,011.85 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.26per pick | 35cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked No | 2c | 1,500$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 145 | 28.3%41 W · 104 L | +11.0wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e56…35d5backed No | 2c | 1,209$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked No | 72c | 900$650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf964…6e97backed Yes | 7c | 747.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.49 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 24cpaid | +336.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9339…a56fbacked Yes | 70c | 676.96$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 15c | 635.23$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$539.94 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked Yes | 56c | 568.82$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.17 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd347…6e5abacked No | 43c | 531.27$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 50c | 477.54$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.28 | 51 | 68.6%35 W · 16 L | +9.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 14c | 443.79$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.86 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59bf…fb29backed No | 3c | 418.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5f…e63cbacked Yes | 77c | 379.83$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…dee1backed Yes | 78c | 272.19$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 17c | 234.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.65 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Yes | 31c | 225.97$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.74 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 6c | 220.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9849…36f0backed No | 60c | 200$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 35c | 160.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa167…729ebacked Yes | 15c | 147.53$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.53 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.47per pick | 33cpaid | +165.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03d0…d647backed No | 50c | 142.37$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0d…5087backed No | 10c | 116.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5602…c12bbacked No | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked Yes | 25c | 94.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.61 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd45…59b2backed Yes | 25c | 93.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.84 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccad…46ecbacked No | 71c | 56.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…d603backed Yes | 50c | 50.22$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed No | 73c | 34.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf4…7021backed Yes | 44c | 26.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 6, 2026?this page
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 22, 2025?Yes won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 23, 2025?Yes won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 24, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 25, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 26, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 27, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 28, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 29, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 30, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 31, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 3, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 5, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.