Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 31, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d4f2164f42a69e7583c4bca9840a4703f1c90c897611281698f0f3c2f0190ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $48,453
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $48,453 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 9c | 4,000$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.89 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a65…25adbacked No | 78c | 3,467$2,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$751.74 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 73cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 3c | 3,114$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.44 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 17c | 3,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 10c | 2,200$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.99 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 29c | 1,270$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.77 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b5e…61b4backed No | 70c | 1,004$701 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.63 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 132 | 16.7%22 W · 110 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 17c | 922.3$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.63 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3517…dab5backed Yes | 4c | 520$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 26c | 499.17$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.77 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ee4…80f2backed No | 75c | 332.31$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes | 24c | 308.85$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.15 | 152 | 27.6%42 W · 110 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 28c | 306.24$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 5c | 306.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 12c | 261.76$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc2…40d7backed Yes | 26c | 239$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a45…c42dbacked No | 77c | 208.89$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.89 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17a5…e00abacked Yes | 18c | 206.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 169.11$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x011f…1122backed Yes | 18c | 158.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 114 | 19.3%22 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 19c | 141$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 27cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 31c | 140$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 137.76$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…e442backed No | 74c | 134$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -55%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed No | 70c | 130$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e6…8fc2backed No | 69c | 125.77$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.23 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfef4…d202backed Yes | 33c | 112.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x555c…ee28backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.33 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b1…0f4dbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18a…49bbbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 22c | 92.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…cbf9backed Yes | 20c | 83.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 71c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3475…eea8backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2971…b901backed No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b7…9be5backed No | 73c | 52.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1617…ec98backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…c429backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…df38backed No | 79c | 36.29$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88b8…68c6backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4125…868cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80dc…7cf8backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27e6…3363backed No | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 18.66$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…89b8backed No | 68c | 16.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 31, 2025?this page
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 22, 2025?Yes won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 23, 2025?Yes won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 24, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 25, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 26, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 27, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 28, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 29, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 30, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 3, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 5, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.