Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 27, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9bc0f781351fddaa998a8634c1d87b53dce3172f1acdf9468cf6a80f7027621e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,425
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 13c | 5,098$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$665.84 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 22c | 3,506$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.86 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04e8…a0bfbacked Yes | 23c | 2,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 4c | 1,230$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.93 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed No | 65c | 1,190$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$419.86 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 17c | 854.97$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 722.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 4c | 649.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.53 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2369…d8bebacked Yes | 3c | 624.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 9c | 555$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 32 | 3.1%1 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 11cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes | 4c | 533.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48a…fcd2backed No | 63c | 516$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +312.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…49f3backed Yes | 37c | 509.08$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 5c | 486.67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 134 | 3.7%5 W · 129 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 12c | 465.56$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.96 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 29c | 454$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed Yes | 5c | 450.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.24 | 41 | 9.8%4 W · 37 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 6c | 400$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 78 | 7.7%6 W · 72 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes | 6c | 385.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…de26backed No | 76c | 336.92$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.86 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed Yes | 5c | 323.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 8c | 307.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Yes | 22c | 300$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x738f…ba83backed Yes | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Yes | 6c | 276.94$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.62 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 17c | 258.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a13…4593backed No | 79c | 215.61$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.28 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 7c | 203.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a45…c42dbacked No | 78c | 169.87$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.12 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9754…bddabacked Yes | 22c | 161.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 12c | 157.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 149 | 35.6%53 W · 96 L | +6.3wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…e38bbacked Yes | 23c | 154.94$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.79 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ef…5ba1backed Yes | 8c | 145.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c37…85bcbacked Yes | 7c | 143.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ac…67b8backed Yes | 15c | 133.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b8b…713bbacked Yes | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +73.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 14c | 120.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.59 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2457…b193backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 18c | 115.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.33 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 111.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 556 | 18.5%103 W · 453 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fb…2f00backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7458…fa86backed Yes | 17c | 88.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…96ebbacked No | 79c | 65$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -45%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 58c | 64.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc32…2ef1backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44c1…ebc1backed No | 77c | 53.42$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 126 | 30.2%38 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +105.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 66c | 48.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6184…9dfcbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 64c | 37.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 318 | 40.3%128 W · 190 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf875…814dbacked No | 79c | 28.71$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 78c | 26.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 53 | 47.2%25 W · 28 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 72c | 26.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 77c | 20.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -74%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…267ebacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 138 | 18.1%25 W · 113 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…c429backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…6d4bbacked No | 69c | 15.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 27, 2025?this page
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 22, 2025?Yes won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 23, 2025?Yes won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 24, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 25, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 26, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 28, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 29, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 30, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 31, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 3, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 5, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.