TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 29, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,252

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,411 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 126 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes24c5,000$1,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,189.992356.5%13 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+78.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xf3a5…5f3cbacked Yes11c4,451$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.093043.3%13 W · 17 L+4.9wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+91.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c4,070$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.161,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes38c3,000$1,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.982653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x528a…f94abacked No61c1,980$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.28580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc669…53eabacked No77c1,661$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.11837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.18per pick56cpaid-45.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed No63c1,535$965 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.8620446.6%95 W · 109 L-0.9wins0.00per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0654…fabdbacked No66c1,493$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes29c1,408$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.6669634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes38c1,391$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.85825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x934f…f3b8backed No68c1,387$946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$441.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes3c1,361$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.823435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d3b…9672backed No65c1,132$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-61.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No68c1,124$767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.563663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa822…64e6backed Yes41c999.97$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.991717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-19%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x595b…9eeabacked Yes40c774.98$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.99520%1 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.35per pick55cpaid-69.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1d74…96ebbacked No77c650$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.5742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-45%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xec15…86abbacked Yes42c588.84$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cb1…50ffbacked No62c579.63$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes40c542.35$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.952040%8 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf559…f462backed No59c511.39$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7845…417bbacked No60c500$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200650%3 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-25.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ffe…e125backed No66c499.98$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1683964.1%25 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes40c499.78$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002015%3 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5b22…c59cbacked Yes45c447.96$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.451338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed No67c441.36$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.652552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+62.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes34c426$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.646038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x264c…bacabacked No61c376.14$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.692035%7 W · 13 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-45.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes27c332.21$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.3644111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xd5db…3c45backed No66c332.16$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.5810338.8%40 W · 63 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x213d…2978backed No69c330.91$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.94366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick56cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed No56c322.98$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.9719236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes34c310.09$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.7156733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes9c305.43$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.43333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f7…42a9backed No57c300$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$962060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes37c299.98$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.998042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes20c293.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.175050%25 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes22c271.64$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8122641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaadb…85f9backed Yes31c269.77$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$833721.6%8 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick24cpaid+21.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No60c258.35$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.213650%18 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes50c240.78$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.1718725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes43c232.66$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.042259.1%13 W · 9 L+2.9wins+0.13per pick46cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb11e…84c5backed Yes12c222.25$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.053231.3%10 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick25cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes6c207.53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.113813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes10c203.33$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.331343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes9c200$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x738f…ba83backed No57c200$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6e6…8fc2backed No61c200$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.45666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+34.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$866349.2%31 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5037…0307backed No73c200$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.51580%12 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+28.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No58c199.99$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8418745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x625f…93b1backed No76c199.99$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21d5…9925backed No57c199.98$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.991877.8%14 W · 4 L+4.0wins+0.22per pick56cpaid+43.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x9dd3…4ee8backed Yes43c190.91$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-32.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb3b…0937backed No68c189.77$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5202…7975backed Yes42c188.26$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8060%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No59c177$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.841,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc79…331dbacked No59c169.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a45…c42dbacked No74c164.3$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.31181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes28c158.21$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4533627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2e5…4d9abacked No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e66…cbf9backed No62c150.05$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.7366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b07…4ebbbacked No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-27.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9416…5a15backed Yes42c142.71$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604926.5%13 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-30.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes20c134.37$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.3614935.6%53 W · 96 L+6.3wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+1.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x248e…d3a8backed No68c134.12$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c49…07cdbacked Yes13c130.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+263.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf710…edc9backed Yes39c125$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.757331.5%23 W · 50 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-22%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf624…4f7ebacked No57c108.89$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x256e…8a38backed Yes35c101$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86cb…6c6dbacked Yes23c100$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2340%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa772…b18cbacked No60c100$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c1…c739backed No49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+36%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes39c100$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396833.8%23 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-40.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb8…5d95backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes36c95.53$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.925834.5%20 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes33c90.27$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3036527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba1f…e0debacked Yes39c89.33$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x88d7…5253backed No56c89.29$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.29425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-55.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x27e6…3363backed No60c86.62$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.71450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x948b…df38backed No57c85$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.553100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+128.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f49…7458backed No59c84.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.751735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.3wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-38%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No60c80$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.4862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x331d…a3a8backed Yes33c75.45$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-56.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed No60c75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3055618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes40c70$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No54c69$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.944938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked No61c60.78$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.541428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-54.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xac83…6764backed No61c57.11$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.272100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e37…f8e0backed Yes46c52.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85b…6d4bbacked No75c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7a00…f574backed No57c50$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-41.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No78c47.36$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.1996319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c3b…2349backed Yes43c46.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9906…c0aebacked Yes41c44.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.45911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-84.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5232…0ec5backed Yes39c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.650%0 W · 5 L-1.5wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf9ec…963ebacked No69c38.43$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.