TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 25, 2025?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,174
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$53,950

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,174 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes3c12,576$392 inLost-$391.92653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed Yes11c3,050$342 inLost-$342.25757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes2c2,784$50 inLost-$50166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick8cpaid-71.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f4…88e6backed Yes4c2,161$86 inLost-$8670%0 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes3c1,107$28 inLost-$28.213013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick18cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc758…8153backed No78c1,044$814 inWon+$229.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4c7…7051backed Yes2c818.26$15 inLost-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c785.62$16 inLost-$16.44827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes4c745.64$33 inLost-$32.841343.7%5 W · 129 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-52.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes5c700$32 inLost-$32787.7%6 W · 72 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1bd4…1b34backed Yes13c687.75$87 inLost-$87.3220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf25b…82d0backed Yes5c664.55$32 inLost-$32.08319.7%3 W · 28 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54f2…55d9backed Yes22c640$141 inLost-$140.820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes5c627.29$33 inLost-$32.93419.8%4 W · 37 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick5cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes10c600$60 inLost-$6019638.8%76 W · 120 L-4.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-16.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe27…52b7backed Yes11c499.98$55 inLost-$551258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x557a…9f70backed Yes22c489$108 inLost-$107.58450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+18%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes4c473.6$21 inLost-$21.013813.2%5 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.08per pick5cpaid+47.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes5c439.17$24 inLost-$23.93333%1 W · 32 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-67.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcef…7388backed Yes6c400$23 inLost-$23.2210%0 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c395.26$13 inLost-$12.531,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1551…2b86backed Yes14c346.73$50 inLost-$501030%3 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick21cpaid+26.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes10c289.12$29 inLost-$28.9144111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe47d…907bbacked Yes22c276$61 inLost-$60.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe62…6d76backed No78c274$214 inWon+$60.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes8c270.96$23 inLost-$22.795050%25 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xeeb1…bf68backed Yes9c228.97$21 inLost-$20.6110630.2%32 W · 74 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+57.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe71c…4775backed Yes12c218.72$26 inLost-$25.8630%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes9c200$18 inLost-$1815227.6%42 W · 110 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x22af…399abacked Yes13c170.81$22 inLost-$22.130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1645…9022backed Yes14c142.86$20 inLost-$20560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.35per pick25cpaid+131.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xadbf…da7bbacked Yes15c131.58$20 inLost-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa39d…b97fbacked Yes11c104.55$11 inLost-$11.520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost-$13.6814528.3%41 W · 104 L+11.0wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x49b6…170cbacked No79c97.61$77 inWon+$20.26053.3%32 W · 28 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick43cpaid+34.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes14c91.26$13 inLost-$13.15834.5%20 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0956…9aa4backed No78c86$67 inWon+$18.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked No69c47.31$32 inWon+$14.8722641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes32c44.49$14 inLost-$14.324837.5%18 W · 30 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x45cc…6400backed No80c33.33$27 inWon+$6.679958.6%58 W · 41 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.