TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Us Politics · resolved market

Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 30, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$75,834
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,724

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,834 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4c0a…ad2fbacked Yes18c12,028$2,165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,165.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993c…6787backed Yes4c6,834$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.6219236.5%70 W · 122 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+20.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cf…88fabacked Yes38c4,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002653.8%14 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+30.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes29c2,800$824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8242356.5%13 W · 10 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick31cpaid+78.1%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x0654…fabdbacked No64c2,245$1,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.072100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbacd…ab35backed Yes2c1,991$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0718425%46 W · 138 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes2c1,960$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.513435.3%12 W · 22 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick27cpaid-24.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes27c1,400$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.7369634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x934f…f3b8backed No70c1,386$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$421.79560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad4e…12f1backed No61c1,352$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.71275%9 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+12.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes37c1,344$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.36825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe598…a0a8backed No66c1,250$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.413663.9%23 W · 13 L+3.9wins+0.11per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x528a…f94abacked No64c1,248$799 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.37580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+19.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3069…f8efbacked No62c1,045$650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.836354%34 W · 29 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b22…c59cbacked Yes36c761.21$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.041338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes23c747.3$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4556733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x47ae…ee94backed No63c599$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.64633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes2c502.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.21827.3%6 W · 76 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x784f…5df9backed No61c500$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.98757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.17per pick41cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb01…02e5backed Yes42c482.33$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.912040%8 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick35cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c365$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.951,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes14c336.36$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.7911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.28per pick39cpaid-84.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes53c311$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.5118725.1%47 W · 140 L+10.5wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-14%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0711…f03cbacked Yes16c310$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.9522641.6%94 W · 132 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a45…c42dbacked No69c306.08$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.081181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick64cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1052060%12 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e49…4e74backed Yes36c300$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes39c300$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1178042.5%34 W · 46 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xab26…9656backed Yes26c299.99$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$774156.1%23 W · 18 L+4.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+25.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed Yes19c284.14$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.665050%25 W · 25 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+20%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes34c225$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.96038.3%23 W · 37 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-34%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No78c210.21$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.781,07335.5%381 W · 692 L-70.5wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed No62c210$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.818745.5%85 W · 102 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22db…190fbacked No64c200$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7223543.8%103 W · 132 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c1…c739backed No47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+36%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7e31…454dbacked No77c161.63$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.573650%18 W · 18 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes26c160$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.62941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-12.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.2511529.6%34 W · 81 L-5.8wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+4.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c49…07cdbacked Yes15c146.23$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22520%1 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick9cpaid+263.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes35c139.99$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5633618.5%62 W · 274 L-46.5wins-0.14per pick32cpaid-60%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x350e…6539backed Yes36c134.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.094652.2%24 W · 22 L+4.1wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+41.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x335d…8f03backed No58c130$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.21338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22f0…ae31backed No80c118.7$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.891553.3%8 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick43cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked No63c118.51$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.851428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.1wins-0.22per pick51cpaid-54.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xd185…f039backed No67c118.03$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed No75c110.1$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.522552%13 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+62.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa772…b18cbacked No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa7f2…7027backed No68c100$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.52532%8 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x635d…5025backed No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356349.2%31 W · 32 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-10.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb8…5d95backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick72cpaid+40.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8296…f295backed Yes12c100$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.7wins+0.41per pick25cpaid+381.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x899c…d868backed Yes38c99.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$381435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.5wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes28c98.05$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.085834.5%20 W · 38 L-2.7wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-34.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes30c97$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.120%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5518…1211backed No70c97$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70a5…8912backed Yes21c94.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c66…31e3backed No67c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.2862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick58cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes32c75.25$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0633627.4%92 W · 244 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-14.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes20c71.2$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3496319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d93…88babacked No72c70.12$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-30.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb75e…2670backed No73c68.49$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.491100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No67c64.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.154938.8%19 W · 30 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-19.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes18c56.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3436527.1%99 W · 266 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e66…cbf9backed No69c53$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe944…0837backed No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d50…a4c1backed No69c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5580%4 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick64cpaid+21.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd526…03abbacked No67c46.06$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.14425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-62.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes37c39.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4444111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1df7…8dd0backed No59c33.62$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.62333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick20cpaid-44%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed No66c24$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.1612631.7%40 W · 86 L-8.7wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed No64c23.44$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.442516%4 W · 21 L-0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb04e…cea1backed No49c21$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+94.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e6b…570bbacked No69c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.54837.5%18 W · 30 L-5.6wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-31.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9779…c429backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd789…3f8abacked No65c17.82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.