Us Politics · resolved market
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 30, 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2f09861fb40eabc71f3f366d4ba8b4dc22c05e486580ea20416c7c3a93dbfda
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $75,834
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,724
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,834 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c0a…ad2fbacked Yes | 18c | 12,028$2,165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,165.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…6787backed Yes | 4c | 6,834$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.62 | 192 | 36.5%70 W · 122 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cf…88fabacked Yes | 38c | 4,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +5.0wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9a…5d99backed Yes | 29c | 2,800$824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 31cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0654…fabdbacked No | 64c | 2,245$1,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.07 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 2c | 1,991$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 184 | 25%46 W · 138 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2b…c35dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,960$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 27c | 1,400$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.73 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…f3b8backed No | 70c | 1,386$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.79 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad4e…12f1backed No | 61c | 1,352$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.7 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 37c | 1,344$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.36 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe598…a0a8backed No | 66c | 1,250$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.41 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +3.9wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x528a…f94abacked No | 64c | 1,248$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.23per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked No | 62c | 1,045$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.83 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Yes | 36c | 761.21$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.04 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 747.3$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.45 | 567 | 33.2%188 W · 379 L | -40.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ae…ee94backed No | 63c | 599$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.64 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 502.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 82 | 7.3%6 W · 76 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x784f…5df9backed No | 61c | 500$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.98 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…02e5backed Yes | 42c | 482.33$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.91 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 365$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 1,136 | 6.3%72 W · 1,064 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a7…46c4backed Yes | 14c | 336.36$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 39cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 53c | 311$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.51 | 187 | 25.1%47 W · 140 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 16c | 310$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 226 | 41.6%94 W · 132 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a45…c42dbacked No | 69c | 306.08$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.18per pick | 64cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Yes | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e49…4e74backed Yes | 36c | 300$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 39c | 300$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 26c | 299.99$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed Yes | 19c | 284.14$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.66 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +5.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79ad…a9f1backed Yes | 34c | 225$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 210.21$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.78 | 1,073 | 35.5%381 W · 692 L | -70.5wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 62c | 210$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.8 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 235 | 43.8%103 W · 132 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c1…c739backed No | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 28cpaid | +36%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e31…454dbacked No | 77c | 161.63$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4b…b93cbacked Yes | 26c | 160$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.6 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.25 | 115 | 29.6%34 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c49…07cdbacked Yes | 15c | 146.23$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | +263.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 35c | 139.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.56 | 336 | 18.5%62 W · 274 L | -46.5wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -60%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Yes | 36c | 134.42$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.09 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x335d…8f03backed No | 58c | 130$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22f0…ae31backed No | 80c | 118.7$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…11efbacked No | 63c | 118.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd185…f039backed No | 67c | 118.03$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed No | 75c | 110.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa772…b18cbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7f2…7027backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x635d…5025backed No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb8…5d95backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 72cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…f295backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.7wins | +0.41per pick | 25cpaid | +381.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…d868backed Yes | 38c | 99.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 28c | 98.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 58 | 34.5%20 W · 38 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc7…1a35backed Yes | 30c | 97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5518…1211backed No | 70c | 97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70a5…8912backed Yes | 21c | 94.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c66…31e3backed No | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.2 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 32c | 75.25$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 336 | 27.4%92 W · 244 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 20c | 71.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 963 | 19.8%191 W · 772 L | -32.4wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -50%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d93…88babacked No | 72c | 70.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75e…2670backed No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e0c…6b3cbacked No | 67c | 64.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 18c | 56.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 365 | 27.1%99 W · 266 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…cbf9backed No | 69c | 53$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d50…a4c1backed No | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd526…03abbacked No | 67c | 46.06$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 37c | 39.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 441 | 11.3%50 W · 391 L | -44.5wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1df7…8dd0backed No | 59c | 33.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -44%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 66c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 126 | 31.7%40 W · 86 L | -8.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdc…ae37backed No | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb04e…cea1backed No | 49c | 21$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 52cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…570bbacked No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -5.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9779…c429backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd789…3f8abacked No | 65c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 30, 2025?this page
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 22, 2025?Yes won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 23, 2025?Yes won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 24, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 25, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 26, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 27, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 28, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 29, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 31, 2025?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 1, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 2, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 3, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 4, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 5, 2026?No won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 6, 2026?Yes won
- Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on January 7, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.