TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6c87…e1de

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
102
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Movies, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Movies at 53 out of 100; worst Music at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT3748.6%18 W · 19 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 37 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+76.1%+$38.03
Will England vs. Argentina end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will France vs. Spain end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Norway vs. England end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+247.8%+$49.56
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT+37%+$7.4
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+300%+$30
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+25%+$2.5
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$26.97
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$25.76
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.18
Showing 25 of 37 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$40.7
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+37%+$14.79
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+56.8%+$51.08
US strikes Iraq by March 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.97
Will Iran strike Israel on March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$75
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST+25%+$27.03
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+53.8%+$26.92
Will Donald Trump say "Bibi" 3+ times during Israel President events on December 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST+36.6%+$41.5
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before August?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+66.7%+$25.02
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
Israel strike on Iran on June 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2025, EDT+56.3%+$22.5
US military action against Iran before July?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2025, EDT+118.3%+$113.95
All 13 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jul 26, 2026, EDT1353.8%7 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will LeBron James play for the Cleveland Cavaliers in 2026-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$117.39
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spurs vs. Timberwolvesbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$25.76
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–26 NBA Rookie of the Year award?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+54.6%+$27.28
Celtics vs. Heatbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$17.97
Thunder vs. Magicbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+25%+$10
Grizzlies vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$12.86
Warriors vs. Wizardsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$10.54
All 13 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT862.5%5 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.12per pick71cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 3, 2026, EST666.7%4 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+8.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick69cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$13.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$14.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+36.4%+$18.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$14.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST+31.6%+$31.58
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+29.5%+$49.17
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.