AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x322c28c81160348a9fd0a3e621c2743b21d16bdbd04b28b7ebd88bfd02380d11
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $353,363
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $369,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $353,363 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8c7…5104backed Yes | 3c | 17,361$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 6c | 11,552$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.46 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc107…a1eebacked Yes | 1c | 9,761$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…20e0backed Yes | 3c | 6,788$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 42c | 6,690$2,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,790.81 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebfb…c274backed Yes | 0c | 6,201$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 5,399$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.79 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 4,595$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 4,459$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…6e95backed Yes | 22c | 4,427$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6d…d521backed Yes | 21c | 4,357$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$899.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +218.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29fc…31aabacked No | 29c | 4,132$1,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,944.2 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed97…9839backed Yes | 16c | 3,525$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…f957backed Yes | 16c | 3,389$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 2c | 3,342$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.1 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc2a0…fd35backed Yes | 3c | 3,203$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed46…cc5abacked Yes | 1c | 3,089$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…47e5backed Yes | 1c | 2,995$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 16c | 2,958$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.11 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 17c | 2,600$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453.84 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 7c | 2,317$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.75 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 2,314$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…989cbacked No | 22c | 2,230$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,740.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2016…c197backed Yes | 1c | 2,090$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,031$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 79c | 2,000$1,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,579.95 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 1c | 1,876$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.01 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,758$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c68…f2a8backed Yes | 1c | 1,724$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 6c | 1,659$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.99 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 31c | 1,621$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.43 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…d221backed Yes | 3c | 1,476$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.09 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…a4d9backed Yes | 70c | 1,434$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,001 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fe…cafebacked Yes | 1c | 1,354$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7d2…f954backed No | 21c | 1,250$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$987.49 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +13.9wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc999…ca09backed Yes | 2c | 1,200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -74%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e6…a806backed Yes | 1c | 1,100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 72c | 1,062$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.47 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3f…feebbacked No | 77c | 1,045$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc433…2ff8backed Yes | 3c | 1,025$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9afa…10eabacked Yes | 21c | 953.87$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 5c | 950$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.33 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 2c | 906.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.12 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cdb…e92abacked Yes | 61c | 874.89$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5005…84fbbacked Yes | 3c | 857.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked No | 19c | 800$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 58c | 798.43$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.41 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed No | 52c | 797.11$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$381.63 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4e98…3a8abacked Yes | 70c | 714.29$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…d9dbbacked Yes | 2c | 696.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 34c | 687.91$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.29 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5741…fb99backed No | 21c | 633.33$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.55per pick | 20cpaid | +450.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x225c…ba3cbacked No | 76c | 618.42$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked No | 33c | 604.7$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.7 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…d4e0backed No | 42c | 598.72$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$348.72 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e07…f10ebacked Yes | 3c | 597.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.52 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 21c | 594.38$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.07 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x667b…7063backed Yes | 17c | 581.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc8…b4dabacked No | 78c | 565$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x999f…da43backed Yes | 4c | 547.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 53c | 515.43$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.63 | 118 | 41.5%49 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…3c60backed No | 74c | 512.45$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.24 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +327.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ce…2fa6backed Yes | 16c | 473.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71ea…d2c7backed No | 64c | 420.38$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.08 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf04…471ebacked Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e6…356abacked Yes | 18c | 377.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 6c | 357.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked No | 30c | 331.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 7c | 319.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.35 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x208a…31c3backed No | 32c | 309.99$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0523…ace5backed No | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 60cpaid | +65.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb306…0fb9backed No | 20c | 299.98$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.98 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +27.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd97…776cbacked No | 34c | 258.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 68c | 249.97$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.98 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd134…5a70backed No | 28c | 243.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +77.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9290…832cbacked Yes | 77c | 229.77$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x844a…5f53backed No | 56c | 222$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.18 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed No | 21c | 217.78$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 18c | 206.89$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.72 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…806ebacked No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x264f…0633backed Yes | 76c | 200$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 13c | 200$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe16c…9290backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2456…93d2backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 36c | 200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8a4…ab0ebacked Yes | 10c | 199.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3790…f78fbacked No | 31c | 199.99$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3437…f8f3backed No | 16c | 193.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.41 | 43 | 41.9%18 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c87…e1debacked Yes | 72c | 190.51$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 14c | 184.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…858bbacked Yes | 55c | 180.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked Yes | 19c | 178.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 59c | 175.55$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64d8…841fbacked Yes | 58c | 173.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…e15cbacked No | 75c | 172.52$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.13 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf4…59b4backed Yes | 7c | 170$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e20…f237backed Yes | 77c | 167.66$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19a9…735bbacked No | 22c | 165.26$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.66 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +250.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.