AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6d4e3af4996807a673cb2678a7b5960bfd6dfa5c43b8556e23cdf094fb55d2b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $600,103
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $479,278
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $600,103 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 363 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 71c | 98,975$69,894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,081.15 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 25c | 30,421$7,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,471.06 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 59c | 22,459$13,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,167.26 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 57c | 22,321$12,817 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,817.22 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61b3…9d22backed Yes | 7c | 18,202$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,202.93 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.60per pick | 20cpaid | +280.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 18c | 13,907$2,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,496.69 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c7…6ff2backed Yes | 23c | 13,043$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 23c | 12,060$2,818 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,818.41 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed No | 44c | 11,780$5,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,577.24 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc9…ac05backed Yes | 3c | 10,749$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +162.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…dee0backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d5…f0ebbacked Yes | 58c | 8,964$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa85…4d17backed Yes | 38c | 7,366$2,802 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,801.88 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 54c | 6,844$3,686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,685.83 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 52c | 6,830$3,534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,533.53 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e65…e33fbacked Yes | 37c | 6,601$2,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,462.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…75edbacked Yes | 24c | 6,305$1,531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,531.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032a…cf07backed Yes | 1c | 6,007$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc7…a9ddbacked Yes | 35c | 5,944$2,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,080.41 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…614dbacked Yes | 1c | 5,769$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.43per pick | 23cpaid | +252.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 8c | 5,130$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.44 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +111%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 33c | 5,000$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 21c | 5,000$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef3…7bd0backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +3.6wins | +0.26per pick | 32cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4d…1f77backed Yes | 23c | 4,422$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb82e…5278backed Yes | 8c | 4,204$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 33c | 3,937$1,303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,302.89 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 11c | 3,871$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.32 | 198 | 18.7%37 W · 161 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 3,832$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf63b…e23dbacked Yes | 1c | 3,773$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed Yes | 51c | 3,628$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,837.56 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d50…713dbacked Yes | 6c | 3,599$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.51per pick | 16cpaid | +247%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd6b…68f5backed Yes | 35c | 3,034$1,066 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.61 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Yes | 33c | 3,000$990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$990.26 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +327.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb855…6749backed Yes | 21c | 2,614$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…92cbbacked Yes | 49c | 2,388$1,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 41c | 2,346$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$968.66 | 126 | 36.5%46 W · 80 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf81…697dbacked Yes | 12c | 2,234$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.76 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 27c | 2,214$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.56 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe385…dde5backed Yes | 1c | 2,203$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +104.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb58a…5107backed Yes | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6967…1986backed Yes | 61c | 1,957$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Yes | 74c | 1,941$1,443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.09 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…afbbbacked Yes | 28c | 1,885$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked No | 38c | 1,858$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,158.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +110.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x413f…47f3backed Yes | 23c | 1,844$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.22 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 16c | 1,734$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.06 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 20c | 1,543$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.32 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed Yes | 3c | 1,500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.87 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0230…6433backed Yes | 35c | 1,443$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d7…5e39backed Yes | 3c | 1,437$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.98 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc08c…4b12backed Yes | 3c | 1,352$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6430…fb2fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,270$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed No | 61c | 1,254$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.52 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa173…3315backed Yes | 55c | 1,250$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad52…11acbacked Yes | 16c | 1,244$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.09 | 71 | 32.4%23 W · 48 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +49.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6abc…f38ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,118$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb240…024fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,059$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3864…b016backed Yes | 6c | 1,030$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…8f4ebacked Yes | 8c | 1,007$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9010…d06fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 60c | 1,000$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a01…7c0abacked Yes | 52c | 999.99$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 36c | 999.83$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.9 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 73c | 997.4$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.14 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 15c | 987.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa2…3170backed Yes | 52c | 933.57$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 2c | 923.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed Yes | 45c | 912.23$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.41 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77b0…ba0bbacked Yes | 55c | 909.93$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2021…47e0backed Yes | 23c | 906.24$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 21c | 899.97$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.6 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 21c | 899.25$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 19cpaid | -83.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 5c | 858.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.31 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24c9…fe2ebacked Yes | 4c | 845.97$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed Yes | 22c | 813.56$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.36 | 84 | 42.9%36 W · 48 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 16c | 782.18$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.6 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fc…42a0backed Yes | 15c | 758.57$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0777…4b7fbacked Yes | 8c | 741.26$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe828…5ceabacked Yes | 68c | 739.13$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.61 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +133.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebd…e0cabacked Yes | 21c | 707.69$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 23cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6204…421abacked Yes | 73c | 700.6$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.44 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | -6.4wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 66c | 700$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed Yes | 55c | 668.84$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.12 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd25c…8832backed Yes | 8c | 625$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff3…6eccbacked Yes | 7c | 616.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 8cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Yes | 59c | 603.75$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.45 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…c9b2backed Yes | 4c | 600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fde…ec1dbacked Yes | 62c | 600$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked Yes | 50c | 600$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 30c | 599.97$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.49 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 594.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2cf…4c49backed Yes | 12c | 594.05$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35a4…7b85backed Yes | 8c | 591$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.16 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c3…71d7backed Yes | 74c | 583.17$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa57e…7ba4backed No | 44c | 566.67$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked Yes | 50c | 554.89$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.43 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked Yes | 43c | 551.26$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.84 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.