AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd44e7b3f26c79cfd3283edd296ec4b9be41906608b59f8e61d6f737e4d7c11cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $163,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $183,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $163,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b4c…9e9ebacked Yes | 6c | 51,647$3,083 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,082.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +410.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 1c | 20,980$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.69 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 1c | 8,753$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.79 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 0c | 4,559$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 5cpaid | +130.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 0c | 3,307$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.46 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 7c | 1,487$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.83 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,409$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.2 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 16c | 1,081$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.63 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x63b1…1676backed Yes | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…989cbacked Yes | 12c | 999.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 43c | 931.04$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…89f3backed Yes | 16c | 912.22$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 36c | 749$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.42 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9143…9235backed Yes | 14c | 735.71$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +419.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…56c6backed Yes | 14c | 699.4$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab0…9663backed Yes | 12c | 644.5$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…bd7abacked No | 68c | 566.23$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.23 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +133.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 18c | 525$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0326…e74bbacked Yes | 11c | 451.53$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed Yes | 21c | 411.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x549c…ad91backed No | 64c | 400$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.32per pick | 50cpaid | +202.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x768f…8a9bbacked No | 66c | 338.81$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04fb…2f00backed Yes | 11c | 260$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa47f…dfb1backed Yes | 14c | 236.82$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7842backed No | 64c | 235.83$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.83 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…9c9dbacked No | 69c | 235.1$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…b4d9backed Yes | 17c | 233.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 46.5%33 W · 38 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x520b…100abacked No | 76c | 226.15$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…f190backed Yes | 14c | 212.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…b4e4backed No | 77c | 209.29$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +289.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe151…a852backed Yes | 10c | 177.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7c0…65a1backed Yes | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ca…b4f6backed No | 67c | 169.21$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7a…7e19backed Yes | 12c | 165.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +231.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +82.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf33…fb3bbacked No | 76c | 146.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315c…217bbacked Yes | 14c | 145.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x19d1…668dbacked Yes | 15c | 134.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 30cpaid | -76%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabfa…1932backed No | 64c | 118.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0238…c051backed Yes | 15c | 116.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -62.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 33c | 109.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…7f7bbacked No | 65c | 109.85$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.45 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde81…c5dbbacked Yes | 18c | 103.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8148…be40backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9934…6078backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.24per pick | 50cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…b8adbacked Yes | 16c | 99.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48a…b1acbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf811…69babacked No | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4a…cd44backed Yes | 26c | 67.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…1652backed No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 25c | 59.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…614abacked Yes | 19c | 53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…8a13backed No | 69c | 46.38$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.38 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.1wins | +0.53per pick | 22cpaid | +737.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7dc…777abacked No | 76c | 40.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24de…83cbbacked No | 64c | 40.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f23…8be6backed No | 75c | 40.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5b…9d17backed No | 76c | 40.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +145.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -10.8wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed No | 75c | 37.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.17per pick | 35cpaid | +112.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd0…67b0backed No | 67c | 34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked No | 75c | 32.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.09 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x214c…6378backed No | 80c | 31.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…8ecbbacked No | 67c | 29.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +140.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed No | 71c | 23.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe219…4b23backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd68…95aebacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5197…7200backed No | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdff7…4d5ebacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca0…2983backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 48cpaid | +216.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b73…4a7bbacked No | 68c | 14.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +300.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.