AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d3e31c441f2290135d0b96e5b91da2f962e42543dc9754638c50792bf16c8d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,585
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,006
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,585 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f33…0479backed No | 18c | 15,554$2,866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,866.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 20c | 5,000$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef6…fdcdbacked No | 18c | 1,544$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 80c | 1,000$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc507…5d1ebacked No | 15c | 999.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1e8…193fbacked No | 17c | 900$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 17cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…49aebacked No | 22c | 882.76$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd6…60c2backed Yes | 78c | 673.41$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.09 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddad…d5dbbacked Yes | 80c | 639.6$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0578…e1fbbacked No | 17c | 580.65$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2b…665abacked Yes | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53da…af5abacked No | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 3c | 402$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb3…52cdbacked No | 15c | 338.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…9cf1backed No | 23c | 171.98$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x165f…d7c0backed No | 20c | 160$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 99.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 80c | 89.55$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6b…cfafbacked No | 20c | 82.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd177…dd0ebacked No | 30c | 76.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda62…4921backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -18%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 80c | 60.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed No | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +350.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65d5…2047backed No | 20c | 50.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…3748backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2712…eb71backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9e…11d4backed No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +29%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x643c…3fc2backed Yes | 49c | 29.87$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.