AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2821de9fbe90c422cb220dad69fe44dfdea8fdf8fb779e562b44be6db8c1daff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,089,274
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,089,274 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 603 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked Yes | 7c | 39,043$2,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,834.83 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…ba88backed No | 8c | 31,654$2,578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,075.67 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf93…2fd7backed No | 26c | 29,601$7,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,901.06 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +118.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72a2…7b65backed Yes | 66c | 25,069$16,580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,580.34 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22e4…ef1cbacked Yes | 80c | 24,945$19,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,906.05 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09d0…ec5ebacked Yes | 2c | 18,241$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce61…9381backed No | 47c | 15,543$7,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,181.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked No | 20c | 15,504$3,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,474.4 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e9…2cbfbacked Yes | 7c | 14,508$996 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$996.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…989cbacked Yes | 78c | 14,045$10,937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,936.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked No | 18c | 11,790$2,181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,609.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 10c | 10,615$1,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,535.29 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c7…5104backed Yes | 12c | 10,408$1,294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,294.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 13c | 9,931$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,688.58 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked No | 12c | 8,565$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,536.75 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 37c | 8,500$3,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,177 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 25c | 7,328$1,832 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,831.76 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 74c | 7,222$5,361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,861.33 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…9e9ebacked No | 10c | 6,723$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,064.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 8cpaid | +410.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed No | 7c | 6,222$462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,759.69 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7334…cc1cbacked Yes | 1c | 6,025$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x598e…b9f1backed Yes | 9c | 5,446$487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +123.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…d4e0backed No | 10c | 5,339$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,821.97 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 76c | 5,004$3,801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,801.25 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked No | 8c | 4,941$409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,532.23 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 1c | 4,449$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 59 | 3.4%2 W · 57 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 9cpaid | -94.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x418f…44fabacked Yes | 44c | 4,150$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,823.77 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -73%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…2d8fbacked No | 49c | 4,078$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,078.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2582…ccbabacked Yes | 52c | 4,000$2,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,072 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8e…ceddbacked No | 49c | 4,000$1,944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,056 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…91abbacked Yes | 41c | 3,989$1,631 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,631.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8790…5a51backed No | 59c | 3,978$2,347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc438…3ae6backed No | 33c | 3,925$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,641.41 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 73c | 3,917$2,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,860.83 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5beb…8a8abacked No | 13c | 3,916$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,416.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +545.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7648…c147backed No | 58c | 3,719$2,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,574.91 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…b4e4backed No | 31c | 3,678$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,542.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +289.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd8…d3ddbacked No | 68c | 3,580$2,428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.47 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda31…8e56backed No | 12c | 3,500$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,080 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 17c | 3,498$612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,885.85 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5713…e818backed No | 12c | 3,371$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,973.33 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.71per pick | 29cpaid | +381.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 77c | 3,300$2,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,553.78 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1232…629ebacked No | 15c | 3,236$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,748.89 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +271.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…d769backed No | 9c | 3,053$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,785.86 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +578.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8296…fecabacked No | 32c | 2,912$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.24 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x44ef…ff3dbacked No | 47c | 2,909$1,382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,527.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 20c | 2,865$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.29 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 11c | 2,827$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.36 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed No | 8c | 2,766$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,544.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 55c | 2,681$1,478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,478.15 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed No | 13c | 2,528$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,210.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +404.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 25c | 2,363$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,763.29 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 41c | 2,275$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.15 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…d4b1backed No | 9c | 2,253$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,053.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 14cpaid | +810.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66af…0cecbacked No | 49c | 2,240$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,153.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 49cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd6…3df6backed Yes | 5c | 2,208$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9299…6beabacked No | 59c | 2,140$1,265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$875.26 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8980…2c6fbacked Yes | 11c | 2,088$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb75d…27b8backed No | 59c | 2,060$1,211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$848.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 49c | 2,054$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,011.96 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…e15cbacked No | 24c | 2,046$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,545.05 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85dc…7ebfbacked No | 16c | 2,029$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,713.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +427.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…46a3backed No | 48c | 2,005$966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,038.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1543…baafbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0746…b103backed No | 48c | 1,995$962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6e…0ae1backed No | 59c | 1,940$1,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +70.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 11c | 1,875$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,662.66 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa99…dbbfbacked No | 8c | 1,875$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,732.73 | 63 | 54%34 W · 29 L | +11.0wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,862$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.09 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…db34backed No | 59c | 1,860$1,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0224…292abacked Yes | 67c | 1,813$1,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,219.26 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed No | 62c | 1,797$1,118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.82 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 16c | 1,770$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.36 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 59c | 1,761$1,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.59 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd87e…d207backed No | 48c | 1,760$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$906.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +106.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…15dfbacked No | 6c | 1,751$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.95 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 5cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afa…10eabacked Yes | 75c | 1,730$1,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,301.12 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked No | 48c | 1,715$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$892.84 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 70c | 1,655$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,166.7 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae23…142ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,648$889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888.99 | 58 | 22.4%13 W · 45 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,642$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 59 | 1.7%1 W · 58 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -95.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 50c | 1,622$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.33 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked No | 23c | 1,620$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,241.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +541.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d3…dfcdbacked No | 14c | 1,600$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,369 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 77c | 1,586$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,225.46 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 11c | 1,522$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,359.61 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 1c | 1,485$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,470.33 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xacf0…0274backed Yes | 8c | 1,462$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.75 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f05…e559backed Yes | 7c | 1,429$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cff…3abdbacked Yes | 4c | 1,402$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked No | 11c | 1,372$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.25 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x575b…14f0backed Yes | 56c | 1,360$755 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfa…f1b6backed Yes | 46c | 1,331$612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611.67 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 7c | 1,285$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca2…f957backed Yes | 31c | 1,252$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…efbebacked No | 14c | 1,251$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.86per pick | 14cpaid | +602.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 58c | 1,217$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708.06 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd651…f32bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,200$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4657…5a0dbacked Yes | 7c | 1,198$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 42c | 1,195$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.09 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.