AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ccd3fe9eccb2448cc4ec2873cd472b600107a35a3e6835e5ffe117c8267329f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 35c | 28,632$9,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,945.39 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e42…49edbacked No | 33c | 7,500$2,441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,440.67 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.25per pick | 46cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe7bd…ebcebacked Yes | 70c | 6,645$4,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,008.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 63c | 6,478$4,087 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.55 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked Yes | 69c | 5,852$4,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.06 | 143 | 39.2%56 W · 87 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 71c | 4,587$3,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.81 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x811f…16e3backed Yes | 62c | 4,367$2,707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,660.53 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +85.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 34c | 4,291$1,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,437.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 39cpaid | +111%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…a558backed Yes | 60c | 2,999$1,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,194.55 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd590…5eeebacked No | 41c | 2,421$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.22per pick | 34cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 63c | 2,228$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.45 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda63…b031backed No | 28c | 1,979$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 25c | 1,499$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.84 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c9…0f2bbacked No | 6c | 1,299$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.14 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 18cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa37a…a9e7backed Yes | 62c | 1,261$781 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 1,199$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.04 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…297bbacked Yes | 70c | 1,107$775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.06 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64e…c86fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,076$723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…14f1backed No | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa28c…e10fbacked Yes | 72c | 1,000$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…5850backed Yes | 66c | 999.99$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 21c | 862.88$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.81 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 67c | 725$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.25 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 71c | 691.86$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.35 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 73c | 629.99$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 77c | 613.8$473 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.2 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…0f32backed No | 16c | 598.1$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -62.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…543abacked No | 34c | 590.75$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7803…9e91backed No | 36c | 580.61$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6271…0b47backed Yes | 71c | 549.3$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +199%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 58c | 499.99$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x042e…e021backed Yes | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 16c | 485.16$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.61 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 27c | 437.5$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.14 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 6c | 425.92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 138 | 8%11 W · 127 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 63c | 420$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.4 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 19c | 400$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 6c | 378$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c68…e0c8backed Yes | 63c | 355.56$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed Yes | 71c | 341$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.23 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | -3.8wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…fc51backed Yes | 66c | 340.4$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.14 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 31c | 328.74$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.88 | 62 | 16.1%10 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -28%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed Yes | 65c | 321.17$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8c…e548backed No | 32c | 310.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19c5…511dbacked No | 33c | 287.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 35c | 277.96$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 95 | 25.3%24 W · 71 L | -13.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 68c | 275.83$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.27 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 32c | 273.84$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed Yes | 66c | 267.63$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.12 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa98…af7fbacked Yes | 69c | 249.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 58c | 232.13$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.14 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 13c | 229.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 134 | 22.4%30 W · 104 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca0…e59dbacked Yes | 67c | 222$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.26 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 39c | 214.63$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.84 | 164 | 18.9%31 W · 133 L | -21.7wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 7c | 205$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 61c | 200$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc3…cef6backed Yes | 67c | 200$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c9b…8e49backed No | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x993b…dedabacked Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 44cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fd…3348backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 20cpaid | +279.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ce9…af21backed Yes | 63c | 198.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.41 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4688…6f23backed Yes | 63c | 192.06$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6000…7ad7backed Yes | 63c | 188.89$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.89 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc76…5f55backed No | 32c | 187.5$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f07…6885backed Yes | 63c | 184.13$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9bf…129fbacked Yes | 63c | 182.54$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.54 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…f74dbacked No | 36c | 180$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.2 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 75c | 174.72$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…506fbacked Yes | 63c | 173.02$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ba6…ee24backed Yes | 63c | 171.43$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd7…5870backed Yes | 66c | 170.33$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2004…914abacked No | 37c | 168.47$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc774…95cebacked Yes | 70c | 165.67$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…27f1backed Yes | 66c | 161.45$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 78c | 161.42$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.38 | 256 | 32.8%84 W · 172 L | -24.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1685…18ecbacked No | 6c | 160$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 9cpaid | +322.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…ea80backed Yes | 70c | 157.5$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…6a6bbacked Yes | 67c | 156.29$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb287…c635backed Yes | 69c | 155.7$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7167…e139backed Yes | 69c | 155.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…4ab2backed Yes | 63c | 153.97$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05de…46a0backed Yes | 63c | 152.38$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…0873backed No | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc111…a00cbacked Yes | 67c | 149.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…d152backed No | 28c | 138.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…802dbacked Yes | 63c | 138.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9828…9ca5backed Yes | 63c | 138.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.1 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4821…6ab1backed Yes | 58c | 137.93$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.93 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 56c | 136.18$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 52 | 25%13 W · 39 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30bc…c428backed Yes | 65c | 134$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 42c | 133.29$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.17 | 50 | 38%19 W · 31 L | +5.1wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 60c | 125.11$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.04 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 32c | 125$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c75…f00abacked Yes | 63c | 120.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa87…e68abacked Yes | 63c | 120.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1075…19c1backed No | 19c | 120$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 48 | 16.7%8 W · 40 L | -3.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6406…bc04backed Yes | 70c | 120$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.