AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x904813dbc02417ef42534a4522c4efe117f2be7d24b72860c0fffde38ea6c9e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,039,265
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $992,764
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,039,265 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 405 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 11c | 88,825$10,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,038.62 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dd…4b9fbacked Yes | 58c | 66,143$38,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,354.98 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 80c | 25,962$20,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,239.24 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c7…5104backed Yes | 10c | 20,822$2,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,075.64 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…8c8ebacked No | 8c | 15,385$1,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,204.62 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +120.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed Yes | 27c | 15,362$4,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,116.41 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 12c | 12,481$1,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,461.5 | 63 | 4.8%3 W · 60 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -90.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2a…b7ecbacked Yes | 8c | 10,671$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dcd…f604backed Yes | 9c | 10,304$927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$927.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 6c | 10,094$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.15 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 11c | 9,999$1,069 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,068.88 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5be1…fb0dbacked Yes | 8c | 9,538$763 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$763.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Yes | 55c | 8,878$4,865 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,865.35 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 11c | 8,218$866 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$865.86 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x443f…d4b1backed No | 15c | 7,969$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,784.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.61per pick | 14cpaid | +810.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes | 75c | 7,878$5,892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,891.57 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…e34bbacked No | 13c | 7,733$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,746.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 13cpaid | +683.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 17c | 7,476$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,256.88 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…9e54backed No | 20c | 7,331$1,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,900.85 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e8a…70babacked Yes | 1c | 6,662$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 8c | 6,642$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.2 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffef…d7dbbacked No | 10c | 6,195$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,596.15 | 28 | 17.9%5 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535e…ccd9backed No | 12c | 5,673$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,014.5 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +90.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 5,050$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.59 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…ba88backed No | 8c | 5,000$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,599.98 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 4,834$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf44d…60afbacked No | 33c | 4,674$1,559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,114.95 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85de…c5f9backed Yes | 22c | 4,661$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda68…7ee2backed No | 68c | 4,464$3,040 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,424.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 4,464$1,278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,277.91 | 194 | 32%62 W · 132 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 7c | 4,300$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67d6…245ebacked No | 35c | 4,247$1,478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,769.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 62c | 4,112$2,565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,565.38 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3835…0b09backed Yes | 9c | 3,869$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2cc…5024backed No | 21c | 3,617$757 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,859.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.79per pick | 21cpaid | +377.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 12c | 3,608$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.34 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked No | 26c | 3,397$892 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,505.15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,375$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…989cbacked No | 20c | 3,366$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,709.22 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae7…3e12backed No | 14c | 3,109$447 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,662.31 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe6…b39ebacked No | 78c | 3,072$2,387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.61 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa0…3895backed No | 15c | 3,064$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,591.47 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.39per pick | 39cpaid | +137.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f8f…40cfbacked No | 51c | 2,959$1,508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,450.94 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 45cpaid | +74.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…ed23backed No | 64c | 2,849$1,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,039.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed No | 76c | 2,810$2,142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.81 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2663…ed1fbacked Yes | 26c | 2,742$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed Yes | 59c | 2,610$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.12 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98e…9bb3backed Yes | 49c | 2,532$1,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,233.22 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5beb…8a8abacked No | 20c | 2,532$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,033.92 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +545.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c5f…82e7backed Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…758dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,500$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.31 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +429.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x251e…81bfbacked Yes | 12c | 2,439$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.37 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 8cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77fd…b6c8backed Yes | 78c | 2,353$1,833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,832.53 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf603…82f1backed Yes | 22c | 2,341$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.94 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe430…5815backed Yes | 14c | 2,302$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 17c | 2,301$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,919.84 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…c9fabacked Yes | 27c | 2,268$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…20e0backed Yes | 16c | 2,208$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 62c | 2,198$1,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,354.83 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 22c | 2,095$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.93 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed46…cc5abacked Yes | 8c | 2,092$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…5fb0backed No | 56c | 2,041$1,135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.12 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed Yes | 27c | 2,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7661…208abacked No | 24c | 2,000$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,511.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 35cpaid | +99.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ed…b23dbacked Yes | 9c | 1,988$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.96 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 12c | 1,963$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.54 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83b…8848backed No | 50c | 1,931$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$970.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48a5…0f2dbacked Yes | 64c | 1,860$1,184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…e7f9backed No | 11c | 1,840$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.43 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 9cpaid | +170.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafa7…2ceebacked No | 14c | 1,811$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,552.73 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0298…5cdcbacked No | 71c | 1,811$1,280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.9 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.2wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x878c…c12abacked No | 12c | 1,784$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.35 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.82per pick | 18cpaid | +541.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb9d…e31bbacked Yes | 62c | 1,765$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,099.99 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 35cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4158…ce9fbacked No | 21c | 1,758$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5170backed Yes | 1c | 1,750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 18c | 1,722$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.64 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 6c | 1,634$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.94 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 4c | 1,615$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.78 | 48 | 6.3%3 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 71c | 1,532$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.34 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecc…d4e0backed No | 17c | 1,508$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 13c | 1,456$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 7c | 1,456$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.39 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd7…b4e4backed No | 14c | 1,420$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,221.2 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +289.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x695c…10a1backed No | 6c | 1,402$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,324.37 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed No | 72c | 1,394$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.08 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd13f…b2e0backed Yes | 9c | 1,387$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…9dc1backed No | 37c | 1,363$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x189d…34febacked Yes | 4c | 1,342$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73ee…9452backed Yes | 12c | 1,312$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.7 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0d9…9074backed No | 11c | 1,305$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.65 | 26 | 23.1%6 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 12c | 1,289$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.64 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 21c | 1,281$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.24 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…e215backed No | 79c | 1,266$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 1,262$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed No | 16c | 1,215$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015 | 52 | 40.4%21 W · 31 L | +6.1wins | +0.12per pick | 29cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd7…9c85backed No | 13c | 1,177$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.76 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fb…57e5backed No | 18c | 1,169$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$955.29 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +5.5wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…9689backed No | 65c | 1,145$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.38 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +38%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebfb…c274backed Yes | 9c | 1,111$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.