AI · resolved market
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0b8382c3f8bf1a2ba7d9d37846edb54eb266a326b73d2338dc86a5959bf22ee4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $173,894
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $173,894 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe29a…0620backed Yes | 1c | 10,398$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6414…61bbbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5c…3036backed Yes | 5c | 6,500$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…57f7backed Yes | 3c | 6,006$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3561…143bbacked Yes | 2c | 5,289$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked Yes | 7c | 4,177$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.72 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9449…34e7backed Yes | 3c | 3,100$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,998$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9642…d2abbacked Yes | 2c | 2,503$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…ae94backed No | 77c | 2,187$1,683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.84 | 79 | 51.9%41 W · 38 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fd…8aa5backed Yes | 2c | 2,069$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 7cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,041$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1e…6884backed Yes | 1c | 1,872$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9982…23c1backed Yes | 16c | 1,815$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.37 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 18c | 1,678$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.73 | 38 | 7.9%3 W · 35 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 2c | 1,624$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 1,506$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd86e…ee3ebacked No | 76c | 1,494$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$362.67 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7648…c147backed No | 74c | 1,214$893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$321.38 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d7…f73abacked Yes | 1c | 1,161$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…6b38backed Yes | 1c | 1,034$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +598.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…3942backed Yes | 2c | 913.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8510…57e6backed Yes | 13c | 857.11$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b62…9ecdbacked No | 78c | 768.64$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -68%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b2…989cbacked Yes | 14c | 700$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e38…4464backed Yes | 16c | 687.71$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 6c | 643.95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee9…f66fbacked Yes | 9c | 588.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 17c | 538.05$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.5 | 251 | 22.7%57 W · 194 L | -9.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05a5…46a1backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 2c | 496.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7134…8febbacked Yes | 14c | 476.18$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.92 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 4c | 423.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.86 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf124…d6fabacked Yes | 14c | 376.42$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c15…758dbacked Yes | 6c | 328.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +429.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 17c | 316.38$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.87 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6ea…b02abacked Yes | 14c | 299.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c87…9bd4backed No | 75c | 262.77$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf427…15e1backed No | 80c | 225$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd27…2807backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…2d1abacked Yes | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 20c | 199.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7433…958ebacked Yes | 24c | 194.08$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 25c | 193.58$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6484…7102backed Yes | 13c | 180.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6697…3f57backed Yes | 19c | 156.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ad…18f4backed Yes | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda14…a40cbacked No | 67c | 145.52$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked Yes | 8c | 132.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb6…5e8abacked Yes | 15c | 130.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed No | 36c | 125.34$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.22 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8535…17cebacked Yes | 25c | 120.8$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec19…73d6backed Yes | 19c | 102.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f3…d859backed Yes | 25c | 100.18$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.76 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc37b…9b85backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.21per pick | 48cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c4…13d1backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +384%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8c65…dcf7backed No | 72c | 99.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf259…c9fabacked Yes | 60c | 99.85$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x701c…6e40backed Yes | 33c | 92.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2f…d6b1backed Yes | 20c | 87.62$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed Yes | 28c | 85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | -19.3wins | -0.22per pick | 43cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe4…d191backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b3…b95abacked No | 67c | 59.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…c3aabacked No | 69c | 57.64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cac…e7fabacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b4…c24ebacked Yes | 28c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd72c…8da1backed Yes | 33c | 47.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 33c | 46.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x290f…7e47backed No | 71c | 38.29$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7b…4a7fbacked No | 75c | 37.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb61…5d64backed No | 57c | 29.26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ec…8575backed No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d5…a84bbacked Yes | 41c | 26.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x320b…fdc1backed No | 69c | 26.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7c…38e5backed No | 75c | 21.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a4e…b38cbacked No | 79c | 21.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +116.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47e7…7c61backed No | 77c | 19.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026?this page
- Will Claude 5 be released by April 30, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by December 31?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 14, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by February 6, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Yes won
- Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?No won
- Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.